Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022?
20%
chance

real money market: https://polymarket.com/market/will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-in-2022

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Twitter permanently banned former president of the USA, Donald Trump, from the platform in January 2021 during the final days of his term. His handle @realDonaldTrump had over 88.9 million followers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) tweets at least once after October 27, 2022, and by December 31, 2022, (11:59:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump.

Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.


Here is the market for 2023:

Sort by:
Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle
is predicting NO at 35%

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-28/trump-s-twitter-legal-battle-lingers-after-musk-allows-him-back

Trump is… still suing Twitter to be let on despite having already been let on? It looks like Trump (‘s lawyers) are looking to set a precedent and get monetary damages, so it seems more unlikely that he’ll choose to go back on.

makoyass avatar
mako yass
is predicting YES at 26%

@Gabrielle uhh what does staying off twitter have to do with that legal fight? It's not as if he can argue that he's still banned just because he has chosen not to tweet.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle
is predicting NO at 27%

@makoyass No direct connection, but it made me update towards being less likely compared to before I knew about the court case.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray
is predicting YES at 38%

I think the general amnesty will bring back some interesting content that might help lure trump back to twitter

Gigacasting avatar

Timeline:

Filo avatar
Filo
is predicting NO at 74%
MP avatar
MP
is predicting YES at 74%

I can't believe that Don isn't addicted anymore to Twitter

DavidBolin avatar
David Bolin
is predicting YES at 70%

@MP He is, he just hasn't logged in yet. Once he does, he will not be able to resist tweeting.

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatley
is predicting YES at 70%

@DavidBolin So much money riding on the question of whether he's gotten a new phone in the last two years.

Thagliou avatar
Thagliou
is predicting NO at 59%
Thagliou avatar
Thagliou
is predicting NO at 59%
PhillipConstantine avatar
Phillip Constantine
is predicting YES at 76%
AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartman
is predicting YES at 78%

Dropping again? Maybe I should buy more . . .

Daconomist avatar
Daconom
bought Ṁ52 of NO

»Donald Trump says he sees “a lot of problems at Twitter” and will stick to his own social-media platform, offering an initial response to Elon Musk’s poll on whether to reinstate the former president’s account.« https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-19/trump-cites-twitter-problems-says-he-ll-stick-to-own-platform?utm_content=politics&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-politics&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

MortenAndersen avatar
Morten Andersen
bought Ṁ71 of YES

@Daconomist the bet is whether he will make 1 tweet not whether it will be his primary platform

DavidBolin avatar
David Bolin
is predicting YES at 75%

@MortenAndersen Exactly. If this were a real money market I would push the price up to 90. He hasn't even posted anything on Truth Social for over 13 hours, the fact that he didn't post on Twitter last night is not a reason for the value to go down by 10%.

It could be a weak or more before he gives in to his vices, but he will eventually post something.

jfjurchen avatar
J. F. Jurchen
bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

Perhaps he's founded another social network in the past 13 hours

Filo avatar
Filo
is predicting NO at 74%

@DavidBolin I'd say the fact that Trump himself said he wouldn't want to use Twitter implies more than a 10% chance of him not tweeting for the next ~40 days. With current information, this market at 90% would be pure delusion.

BTE avatar
BTE
bought Ṁ555 of YES

He has already followed 49 people.

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 79%

though one of them is Mike Pence so doubtful he did it himself.

TriHard avatar
TriHard
sold Ṁ72 of YES

Trump is trying to take Truth Social public with a SPAC. I don't think the investors would be happy if he started posting on another platform. He might be contractually obligated to only post on Truth Social. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/DWAC

jack avatar

@TriHard Surely it would make sense for him to at least tweet promoting Truth Social?

Cutie avatar
dggL
is predicting NO at 80%

@jack SURELY

TriHard avatar
TriHard
sold Ṁ49 of NO

@jack Looks like he is allowed to post on twitter but he has to wait 6 hours.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1849635/000119312522161830/d265650ds1.htm

MP avatar
MP
is predicting YES at 73%

@TriHard Trump doesn't care about America, imagine whether he cares about minority shareholders at DWAC

PatrickDelaney avatar
Patrick Delaney
bought Ṁ10 of NO

I just want to point out that NOTHING in this market says anything about Trump changing his profile. If he changes his profile but does not Tweet, that absolutely does not count toward him Tweeting, at ALL. The bet at hand is WILL HE TWEET? This needs to be made super clear.

GIGACHAD avatar
GIGA CHAD
is predicting YES at 87%

This hoe better tweet or im going to sell

DavidBolin avatar
David Bolin
is predicting YES at 87%

@GIGACHAD Zero chance that he does not tweet.

It is possible that he plans not to. In that case, he may not tweet for a few days.

But eventually he will get curious and log in.

Once he logs in, there is zero chance he does not tweet.

rush avatar
sushi P wizard
is predicting NO at 60%

@DavidBolin "I don't see any reasons for it"

GIGACHAD avatar
GIGA CHAD
is predicting YES at 87%

They wont pay up until he tweets :(

RealBrontitall avatar
Real Brontitall
is predicting YES at 86%

Still a good chance he doesn’t imo

freelilmeme avatar
blicky
is predicting YES at 87%

Pay up dat guap boi

freelilmeme avatar
blicky
is predicting YES at 87%
Filo avatar
Filo
is predicting NO at 86%

@freelilmeme He hasn't tweeted yet my man

AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartman
is predicting YES at 82%

Trying to decide if I want to bail now or ride this one all the way to the end.

Cutie avatar
dggL
bought Ṁ30 of NO

@AndrewHartman I’m in too fucking deep

AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartman
is predicting YES at 86%

@Cutie I'd probably take my money and dip if it can just tip over 90%. I wouldn't be leaving too much on the table and I'd rate his commitment to Truth Social around there.

Gigacasting avatar
AvikaAvasarala avatar
Avika Avasarala
is predicting NO at 81%

https://twitter.com/bestofdyingtwit/status/1594094425843515392?s=20&t=uqPgjt2oKaphEtw5kJqBiw trump saying "there's no need for it" re: twitter, saying he prefers truth social anyways

AvikaAvasarala avatar
Avika Avasarala
bought Ṁ77 of NO

trump says he won't tweet in press conference

Rederth avatar
Red
bought Ṁ10 of YES

@AvikaAvasarala Have a link for that? I can't see anything online.

jfjurchen avatar
J. F. Jurchen
bought Ṁ200 of YES

Amazed that people are buying "Trump has self-control" at these odds

BTE avatar
BTE
bought Ṁ100 of YES

Current adding 5,000 followers every few second.

BTE avatar
BTE
sold Ṁ77 of NO

He is back. He will tweet.

DavidBolin avatar
David Bolin
is predicting YES at 83%

Elon Musk on Twitter: "The people have spoken. Trump will be reinstated. Vox Populi, Vox Dei." / Twitter

Zero chance he does not post, even he just posts to tell people to sign up for Truth Social.

kolotom99 avatar
Tomek K ☑️
is predicting NO at 75%

What happened, why did it drop

kolotom99 avatar
Tomek K ☑️
is predicting NO at 75%

lol

kolotom99 avatar
Tomek K ☑️
is predicting NO at 75%

US users only. Is this a joke or wth

TriHard avatar
TriHard
is predicting YES at 76%
Rederth avatar
Red
is predicting YES at 77%

There is 0 chance he gets his twitter back and doesn't post there too.

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting NO at 77%

@Rederth He actually signed a deal with Truth Social limiting his ability to post elsewhere. And he has a financial stake in that company. So it’s in his personal financial interests not to. But it’s probably in his political interests.

PhillipConstantine avatar
Phillip Constantine
is predicting YES at 77%

@BTE True, but he might still want to post just to say "screw the media and old twotter execs. Follow me on truth social" just to try to get attention. Even if its just the tiny bit, this resolves YES

Rederth avatar
Red
bought Ṁ74 of YES

@PhillipConstantine Plus there is no way he doesn't gloat and thank all his followers. I don't see any timeline where he stays radio silent.

jfjurchen avatar
J. F. Jurchen
bought Ṁ200 of YES

@BTE Trump is famous for adhering to the letter and spirit of contracts he's signed

PhillipConstantine avatar
Phillip Constantine
bought Ṁ26 of YES

@jfjurchen This slayed me 💀

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 87%

@TriHard This absolutely does not matter. He is just trying not to kill his baby. Everyone on TruthSocial is only there because he isn’t on Twitter, but there are like 100mm more people on Twitter following him and he can’t resist that.

kolotom99 avatar
Tomek K ☑️
is predicting NO at 67%


@gigacast has a market on this poll results:

TrexMaster avatar
Trexmaster
sold Ṁ5 of NO

@kolotom99 Did he delete the poll?

kolotom99 avatar
Tomek K ☑️
is predicting NO at 75%

@TrexMaster no, i can see it

GIGACHAD avatar
GIGA CHAD
bought Ṁ700 of YES

INVEST BOYS, WE GETTING RICH

PhillipConstantine avatar
Phillip Constantine
is predicting YES at 63%

@GIGACHAD Damn you. I only had $28 😭

kolotom99 avatar
Tomek K ☑️
is predicting NO at 62%

@GIGACHAD SPEAK FOR YOURSELF

DavidBolin avatar
David Bolin
bought Ṁ100 of YES

@kolotom99 It doesn't look like there are enough "mail-ins" to overcome Trump's lead.

If the poll ends up >50% in favor of enabling his account, Musk will enable it. 100% chance of this.

If it is enabled, Trump will not be able to resist logging into his account, regardless of his plan to stay on his own network. 100% chance of this.

If he logs in, he will not be able to resist tweeting. 100% chance of this.

The only uncertainty is how the poll will end up.

jfjurchen avatar
J. F. Jurchen
is predicting YES at 73%

@DavidBolin It's also possible that Twitter has a two-month-long outage starting before the poll resolves.

DavidBolin avatar
David Bolin
is predicting YES at 73%

@jfjurchen possible but you'd be extremely wise not to bet on that outcome.

Simon805b avatar
Simon
is predicting YES at 72%
SG avatar
S G
is predicting YES at 55%

omg

PhillipConstantine avatar
Phillip Constantine
bought Ṁ28 of YES

Musk just tweeted a poll about reinstating him. 2/3 voting yes so far. Musk commented he will do what the people want.

As many have said here, Trump has reasons to hold back, but I think odds are now 85% chance he tweets this year, even if it's just to say "thanks, but follow me on Truth Social"

gluee avatar
gluee
sold Ṁ168 of YES
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
bought Ṁ10 of NO

Twitter seems to be a bit busy this month.

dunningkruger avatar
Mr.Dunning
is predicting YES at 51%

@MartinRandall yeo, does that boost or reduce the chance lol? i own yes but im not sure anymore. would elon bring trump back for clout or would that just look extremly bad????

noumena avatar
Rachel Shu
sold Ṁ191 of NO
kolotom99 avatar
Tomek K ☑️
bought Ṁ1,000 of NO
JordiCervera avatar
Jordi Cervera
bought Ṁ60 of YES

Hehehe you saw that elon tweet didnt you?

DanielKilian avatar
Daniel Kilian
bought Ṁ15 of YES

yarp!

ChaseGomes avatar
Chase Gomes
bought Ṁ100 of YES
ChaseGomes avatar
Chase Gomes
bought Ṁ100 of YES

Though I said yes, I think this may be a waiting game for Elon. At the current moment, I think that unbanning Trump would be a net negative for the platform (From a PR standpoint). But maybe if the attitude towards Elon's leadership, and the direction of the company changes (In a positive direction), he may be unbanned. I'm unsure how much can happen in the next ~40 days, but I'm optimistic.

Donald trump free from the shackles of Twitter prison. Military, digital, cyberpunk, censorship, ban.
PhillipConstantine avatar
Phillip Constantine
sold Ṁ40 of NO

Just sold my NO's and bought YES. Two reasons:

  1. This tweet https://twitter.com/pamelahensley22/status/1592750869740933122?s=46&t=B_Y5oGVtA3OGqpkbneDaBQ

It just has the right amount of ring to it that I think it will resonate with people. It sounds stupid, but this is just how people work.

  1. Dems did very well in the midterms, and the more power your party has, the less you care about politics. The left is extremely politically active when there is a Rep president, but while holding the presidency and the senate, they will be more apathetic. This allows Elon more leeway to be more liberal on speech issues.

DavidBolin avatar

If Trump is unbanned, he may not use it at first, for reasons other people mention, but eventually he will not be able to resist logging in, and once he does, he will not be able to resist tweeting.

So the only question is whether he will be unbanned or not.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle
bought Ṁ43 of NO

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/11/07/trump-once-reconsidered-sticking-with-truth-social-now-hes-stuck/

“The former president has told his allies that he can’t leave his Twitter clone because he’s propping it up, and he doesn’t want a site so closely associated with his brand to collapse.”

TuckFwitch avatar
Tuck Fwitch
bought Ṁ462 of YES

@Gabrielle Tuck Fwitch Enterprises quite frankly finds it laughable you think Trump wouldnt ditch his site to have a much larger reach and mainstream media reporting his ever comment again, especially during a campaign where he need more coverage, he is way too narcist to say no to that colossal twitter account.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle
is predicting NO at 46%

Staying on his site is potentially worth billions to him, but if he goes to another site as well it dilutes that value a lot. He’s a narcissist but he’s also greedy.

jbeshir avatar
John Beshir
is predicting NO at 46%

@Gabrielle Also, Trump likes winners and Twitter is not currently looking like a winner. I think he could well wait out the current issues.

AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartman
bought Ṁ50 of YES

I think people are underestimating the value proposition for twitter to get some of the big contentious punching bags unbanned and back to stirring up controversy. If you have to be on twitter to lob snide remarks at Trump or Alex Jones or whoever for the benefit of your adoring audience, then the big blue checks are gonna stay there to do it. I doubt they'll sell it that way to their audience, certainly, but the incentives remain.

SamuelRichardson avatar
Samuel Richardson
bought Ṁ50 of YES

@AndrewHartman Agreed. I feel like the way Twitter has been trending, they're going to start doing stuff like unbanning Trump to stir up interest in it again.

kolotom99 avatar
Tomek K ☑️
is predicting YES at 44%

They are asking good questions:

Ulven avatar
A* Ulven
bought Ṁ10 of NO

Twitter may unban him (and I'm still not sure), but Trump is not interested to come back.

https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/25/trump-wont-return-to-twitter/

LivInTheLookingGlass avatar
Olivia
is predicting NO at 54%

@Ulven That would require us to take a liar at face value, when he has large incentives to do otherwise

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 54%

@LivInTheLookingGlass you took the words right out of my mouth.

musk is going to beg trump to come back, you can bet on that. the difference this time, i suspect Musk will engage in all out brawls with Trump on the platform when he disagrees with him. musk is perhaps the only person who could drown out trump effectively.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
bought Ṁ10 of YES

🐜 🐛 🐞 y website

ManifoldDream avatar

Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition