Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?

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Twitter permanently banned former president of the USA, Donald Trump, from the platform in January 2021 during the final days of his term. His handle @realDonaldTrump had over 88.9 million followers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) tweets at least once in 2023 (ET timezone). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump.

Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

//note: If any 2023 tweets appear on @realdonaldtrump timeline, it resolves yes.

This includes retweets, images, 'long tweets' ,Twitter Spaces announced, and other quasitweets published on the profile.

That was the market for 2022:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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predicted NO

@ZachEsenbock , please... 😂

predicted NO

@itsTomekK Trump has tweeted, end of story!

predicted NO

@itsTomekK Factually incorrect.

predicted NO

@itsTomekK

predicted NO

@ZachEsenbock New York Times article stating “Tweets are now posts”.

predicted YES

@ZachEsenbock You’re right, but the market description already accounts for this possibility:

“note: If any 2023 tweets appear on @realdonaldtrump timeline, it resolves yes.

This includes retweets, images, 'long tweets' ,Twitter Spaces announced, and other quasitweets published on the profile.” (Emphasis added)

How is a post not a quasitweet?

predicted NO

@JimHays “Emphasis added”, yet it is the only item in the list NOT emphasized. It is also spelled without a hyphen, I allege here, to create ambiguity in the definition. Given these two circumstances, I believe the made up term “quasitweet” should be disregarded in the decision to resolve this market. See the screenshot below from Manifold’s rules.

@ZachEsenbock Resolving this NO because of the technicality that it's a "post" and not a Tweet despite being posted on (the website formerly known as) Twitter would have been a violation of that rule.

predicted YES

You’ve had a long time to anticipate and raise this objection. That the market didn’t crash when tweets were renamed posts made it clear this was not how bettors interpreted the market.

predicted NO

@JimHays Two completely irrelevant points to the argument at hand.