Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet before the end of Jan 2023? | Manifold Markets

closed Feb 1

Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet before the end of Jan 2023?

1.2%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to Yes if Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) tweets at least once before the end of Jan 2023.

Otherwise reolves to No.

The resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump. Only the @realDonaldTrump verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

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Forrest Tayloris predicting NO at 1%

@GeneFama This can be resolved

BTEbought Ṁ100 of NO

Curious why people think this is going to happen this month?

jackson polackbought Ṁ10 of YES

did you see https://manifold.markets/kolotom99/will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-in-2023 https://twitter.com/alx/status/1615743110285512704

jackson polackis predicting YES at 18%

idk how reliable that is

BTEis predicting NO at 18%

@jacksonpolack Sure did. Bet NO there too. They haven’t even been granted access to FB yet. And this was HIS CAMPAIGN. His campaign accounts are explicitly exempted from the exclusive deal he has with TruthSocial. So it’s not reliable at all.

@BTE Exclusive deal means nothing.

"DWAC disclosed in Monday’s filing... In general, Trump will be obligated to post content on TruthSocial six hours before it can be published anywhere else. But there’s a massive loophole: These rules don’t apply to any content that is related to political messaging, political fundraising, or get-out-the-vote efforts. Those can be posted anywhere Trump wants, whenever he wants." (Mother Jones)

BTEis predicting NO at 14%

@Yoav I was aware of precisely what the contract says. He is currently being paid to post on TruthSocial. He WILL NOT post to Twitter until he gets paid by Elon Musk or someone else to do so. Much greater chance he will post to Facebook. Plus you think this is going to happen in the next 12 days?? Idk, maybe, but probably not.

zQ4Z82W sold Ṁ2 YES at 1.2%

KnowNothing sold Ṁ15 YES from 1.6% to 1.2%

Robin Green bought Ṁ10 NO at 1.6%

Neon Nuke sold Ṁ107 NO at 1.6%

rockenots bought Ṁ2 YES from 1.5% to 1.6%

rockenots sold Ṁ22 NO at 1.5%

Edward Kmett sold Ṁ492 NO from 1.3% to 1.5%

Edward Kmett bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 1.7% to 1.3%

Edward Kmett bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 2% to 1.7%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 2%

Forrest Taylor bought Ṁ700 NO from 3% to 2%

Edward Kmett bought Ṁ200 NO from 4% to 3%

Edward Kmett bought Ṁ949 NO from 7% to 4%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 7%

Neon Nuke bought Ṁ100 NO from 9% to 8%

Odoacre bought Ṁ100 NO from 10% to 9%

Edward Kmett bought Ṁ100 NO from 12% to 10%

Edward Kmett bought Ṁ100 NO from 14% to 12%

Edward Kmett bought Ṁ13 NO at 14%

stq bought Ṁ35 NO from 15% to 14%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ100 YES at 15% (cancelled)

S G bought Ṁ100 NO from 15% to 12%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ100 YES at 15% (cancelled)

Edward Kmett bought Ṁ400 NO from 36% to 13%

Edward Kmett sold Ṁ176 NO from 20% to 36%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ94/Ṁ94 NO at 20%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ80/Ṁ100 NO at 27% (cancelled)

NewPlace2Frown bought Ṁ100 YES from 13% to 37%

Joshua bought Ṁ10 YES from 12% to 13%

Marcus Abramovitch bought Ṁ55 NO from 13% to 12%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ41/Ṁ100 NO at 13% (cancelled)

Marcus Abramovitch bought Ṁ40 NO from 16% to 14%

yaboi69 bought Ṁ10 YES from 14% to 16%

rockenots bought Ṁ20 NO at 14%

Yoav bought Ṁ10 YES from 12% to 14%

jackson polack bought Ṁ10 YES from 10% to 12%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ100 YES at 10% (cancelled)

jackson polack sold Ṁ49 YES from 18% to 7%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ21/Ṁ100 NO at 18% (cancelled)

AG bought Ṁ20 YES from 14% to 20%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ21/Ṁ100 NO at 14% (cancelled)

zQ4Z82W bought Ṁ10 YES from 12% to 15%

zQ4Z82W bought Ṁ10 YES from 10% to 12%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ25/Ṁ100 NO at 10% (cancelled)

Forrest Taylor bought Ṁ70 NO from 13% to 11%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ9 YES at 13% (cancelled)

BTE bought Ṁ100 NO from 15% to 11%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ37/Ṁ37 YES at 15%

BTE bought Ṁ100 NO from 8% to 7%

BTE bought Ṁ100 NO from 10% to 8%