Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet before the end of Jan 2023?

Resolves to Yes if Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) tweets at least once before the end of Jan 2023.

Otherwise reolves to No.

The resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: Only the @realDonaldTrump verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

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ForrestTaylor avatar
Forrest Tayloris predicting NO at 1%

@GeneFama This can be resolved

BTE avatar
BTEbought Ṁ100 of NO

Curious why people think this is going to happen this month?

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polackis predicting YES at 18%

idk how reliable that is

BTE avatar
BTEis predicting NO at 18%

@jacksonpolack Sure did. Bet NO there too. They haven’t even been granted access to FB yet. And this was HIS CAMPAIGN. His campaign accounts are explicitly exempted from the exclusive deal he has with TruthSocial. So it’s not reliable at all.

Yoav avatar

@BTE Exclusive deal means nothing.

"DWAC disclosed in Monday’s filing... In general, Trump will be obligated to post content on TruthSocial six hours before it can be published anywhere else. But there’s a massive loophole: These rules don’t apply to any content that is related to political messaging, political fundraising, or get-out-the-vote efforts. Those can be posted anywhere Trump wants, whenever he wants." (Mother Jones)

BTE avatar
BTEis predicting NO at 14%

@Yoav I was aware of precisely what the contract says. He is currently being paid to post on TruthSocial. He WILL NOT post to Twitter until he gets paid by Elon Musk or someone else to do so. Much greater chance he will post to Facebook. Plus you think this is going to happen in the next 12 days?? Idk, maybe, but probably not.