Will chatting with chatbots be seen as worse than video games for kids by 2026?
Will chatting with chatbots be seen as worse than video games for kids by 2026?
31
1kṀ20952026
40%
chance
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Which will be viewed more negatively at the end of 2025?
"My child spends hours a day playing video games" resolves NO.
"My child spends hours a day talking with chatbots like chatGPT" resolves YES.
I won't bet on this market. I'm open to suggestions for resolution mechanisms. Some kind of poll probably.
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bought Ṁ50 YES11mo
Supposedly, there is already a Character.ai addiction problem. I think that kind of addiction is a lot worse than videogames, it's more a matter of whether chatbot addiction is widespread enough for it to compete with gaming addiction
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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