Which will be viewed more negatively at the end of 2025?
"My child spends hours a day playing video games" resolves NO.
"My child spends hours a day talking with chatbots like chatGPT" resolves YES.
I won't bet on this market. I'm open to suggestions for resolution mechanisms. Some kind of poll probably.
Update 2025-11-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Poll respondents will make their own interpretation of whether "talking with" chatbots means any chatbot use at all (including searches or coding) versus specifically pseudosocial roleplay, therapy, etc.
Update 2025-11-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The poll to determine resolution will be conducted on Manifold Markets (rather than elsewhere).
Update 2026-01-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The resolution poll has been created and is available at: https://manifold.markets/kenakofer/you-overhear-a-parent-my-child-spen
The poll will be open for 1 month.
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| 1 | Ṁ767 | |
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@traders Here's the poll, open for 1 month: https://manifold.markets/kenakofer/you-overhear-a-parent-my-child-spen
@kenakofer Does "talking with" mean any chatbot use at all (including for searches or coding), or does it specifically mean pseudosocial roleplay, therapy, etc.?
Supposedly, there is already a Character.ai addiction problem. I think that kind of addiction is a lot worse than videogames, it's more a matter of whether chatbot addiction is widespread enough for it to compete with gaming addiction