Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2100, "ChatGPT-type chatbots" are deemed extinct. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

For the purposes of this market:

• "ChatGPT-type chatbots" are defined as conversational user interfaces where a human inputs text, voice, or multimodal prompts to a Large Language Model (LLM) or equivalent successor architecture, and receives a direct conversational, turn-based response back.

• "Extinct" means that such conversational chatbot interfaces are no longer actively maintained, sold, or offered to the public or enterprise clients by any of the top 10 global technology companies (by market capitalization) or their direct corporate successors, having been entirely phased out or replaced by other paradigms (e.g., autonomous agentic swarms, direct neural interfaces, or ambient computing without a chat interface).

• If a global catastrophe occurs such that the internet, global electrical grids, or the hosting corporate entities cease to exist, making these chatbots permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to YES.

• This market will resolve based on the consensus of major technology publications, industry archives, or corporate announcements. The market creator will use credible historical and technological records to determine the outcome.

Background

Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, the conversational chatbot paradigm has dominated consumer-facing artificial intelligence. However, many AI researchers and industry figures speculate that the "chatbot" format is a transitional interface. Future paradigms may shift entirely toward autonomous agents that operate in the background, direct neural integration, or ambient systems that do not rely on conversational, turn-based dialogue. This market asks whether this specific interface style will become obsolete and disappear entirely before the turn of the next century.