By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?
15
50
390
2027
75%
chance

I was reading some things that Sydney (Bing Chat) has been threatening users recently and thinking: it seems plausible that even through Sydney only can search the internet, she could use it to do some sort of SQL Injection (perhaps with the help of users) to interact with the outside world.

This market will solve to YES if by 2026 a LLM like Sydney successfully attacks the outside world, without the consent of its developers. Something like a SQL Injection, posting something bad in Twitter about someone, and so on. I'll keep my mind open to adjudicate, therefore I won't bet.

Proeminent means that it was developed by a reputable prominent enterprise (VC backed, publicly traded, famous founders...). A LLM built to serve bad purposes wouldn't count.

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