Profoundlyyyy says on Twitter (https://twitter.com/profoundlyyyy/status/1712533875820474584):
The fact that these AI companies are creating these Character AI chatbots to talk with children without *any* research into how children's social wellbeing may be affected is insane.
Kids are going to stop making real friendships with other humans because it's going to be easier to do so with the bots. What are the long term consequences going to be?
So will he be proven right, by (let's say) 2028?
This market resolves to YES prior to closing if I conclude we have convincing evidence that this claim is >95% likely to be true, that access to such bots substantially decreases (let's say >10%) the number or quality of friendships children form when they have access to such bots. This could consist of one or more studies that I find convincing, of data I find convincing, an expert or general consensus, market activity, or other factors, including in combination.
This market resolves to NO prior to closing if I conclude we have convincing evidence that this claim is >95% likely to be false, in the same way.
If this persistently trades <5% or >95%, and I don't have a reason to disagree, I will consider that sufficient evidence, while noting that this is not necessarily sufficient.
Otherwise, this market resolves to YES or NO at closing time depending on what I feel the preponderance of the evidence shows, which may include running an online poll of some sort if I am uncertain.
If the world/AI has changed by then so much that the question is now N/A, this will resolve N/A instead.
Related questions
We already have been seeing an increase difficulty for teenagers to have strong human relationships that are outside social networks. Studies show that the so-called Gen Z can be considered the laziest generation in history. The disruptive development of technology, from self-driving cars to AI-generated videos and much more, facilitated so much human daily life that is starting to change a whole generation behaviors. As D. Price stated at Daily Republic, the more we depend on advanced technology the more we oppress and retreat our brain activity. Whether it is a smartphone or an AI tool, nowadays we can do anything without using our own brain at all. According to experts, A.I.’s impact on youths will result in diminishing interpersonal and social skills.
I’m betting NO despite suspecting that this will be a serious issue, as given issues with replicating social studies I’m concerned about speed of consensus emerging. Four years is a very short period of time for AI to become widespread and stable enough to justify testing, impacts to be felt, studies to complete and then be replicated.
I think we’ll be at a stage where results suggest “soft YES but more study required” by market close.
@DaveK if.the bots do nothing on the margin versus getting rid of them (but leaving other AI in place) then that is NO.
Maybe we can also open a more general 'will kids have fewer friendships' if we can find a source.
@ZviMowshowitz Taking a small no position, but only down to the odds that I think are reasonable. I think it's entirely plausible by 2028 that ambitious parents use AI to train their kids to be more socially skilled so they have more friends...