Profoundlyyyy says on Twitter (https://twitter.com/profoundlyyyy/status/1712533875820474584):

The fact that these AI companies are creating these Character AI chatbots to talk with children without *any* research into how children's social wellbeing may be affected is insane.

Kids are going to stop making real friendships with other humans because it's going to be easier to do so with the bots. What are the long term consequences going to be?

So will he be proven right, by (let's say) 2028?

This market resolves to YES prior to closing if I conclude we have convincing evidence that this claim is >95% likely to be true, that access to such bots substantially decreases (let's say >10%) the number or quality of friendships children form when they have access to such bots. This could consist of one or more studies that I find convincing, of data I find convincing, an expert or general consensus, market activity, or other factors, including in combination.

This market resolves to NO prior to closing if I conclude we have convincing evidence that this claim is >95% likely to be false, in the same way.

If this persistently trades <5% or >95%, and I don't have a reason to disagree, I will consider that sufficient evidence, while noting that this is not necessarily sufficient.

Otherwise, this market resolves to YES or NO at closing time depending on what I feel the preponderance of the evidence shows, which may include running an online poll of some sort if I am uncertain.

If the world/AI has changed by then so much that the question is now N/A, this will resolve N/A instead.