Will there be a retaliatory action by Wagner against the Russian state before Oct 1st, 2023?
Basic
60
33k
resolved Oct 3
Resolved
NO

Wagner-linked Telegram channels warn of 'consequences' over the killing of Prigozhin, one says that the 'Kremlin will be taken'. [source]

Resolves as YES if, before Oct 1st, 2023, reputable sources confirm a direct and intentional act by Wagner-linked groups against any Russian state, otherwise resolves as NO.

The retaliatory action must be significant, characterized as a tangible event aiming at causing notable impact or disruption to the Russian state. This includes actions like large-scale cyberattacks, infrastructure assaults, or targeted assassinations widely reported by major news outlets. Mere inflammatory statements on platforms like Telegram are not sufficient. The retaliation should potentially have clear real-world consequences.

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Resolves NO @ken

How significant of a retaliatory act?

@Charlie Anything

predicted NO

@Bart5f6d is "Telegram shitposting" significant? Severance of contracts? Anything non-military in general?

@ken serious questions! 'What counts as retaliatory acts' covers like 80% of my uncertainty in outcome.

predicted YES

@797a I added a clarification.