Was the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?
17
162
1k
2030
8%
chance

This market predicts whether the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 was a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership for an undisclosed objective. For this market to resolve as ‘Yes’, credible historical records or confirmed official documents (as of December 31, 2030) should conclusively establish that the rebellion was a premeditated maneuver, intentionally staged by Russian leadership with the intent to accomplish some objective. This objective does not necessarily need to be achieved for the market to resolve as ‘Yes’, nor does it need to be specified. If such definitive evidence is not available by the resolution date, or if evidence refutes this hypothesis, the market will resolve as ‘No’.

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bought Ṁ100 of NO

Seems like NO since Prigozhin would have been in on such a ruse and in that case would not have been killed.

a weak rebellion is a good way to expose disloyal people so that the regime can destroy them. It makes the regime stronger.