Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024?
50
3.6kṀ12k
resolved Feb 17
Resolved
YES
Any Google employee
Resolved
YES
Shayne Coplan
Resolved
YES
Emmett Shear
Resolved
YES
Any employee (CEO not included) of Kalshi
Resolved
YES
Anyone with 25,000 or more followers on LinkedIn
Resolved
YES
Any Microsoft employee
Resolved
YES
Any Anthropic employee
Resolved
YES
Any Samsung employee
Resolved
NO
Lex Fridman
Resolved
NO
Nate Silver
Resolved
NO
Grimes
Resolved
NO
Elon Musk
Resolved
NO
Destiny
Resolved
NO
Beff Jezos
Resolved
NO
Sam Altman
Resolved
NO
Spencer Greenberg
Resolved
NO
Ilya Sutskever
Resolved
NO
Julia Galef
Resolved
NO
Any Current US Senator
Resolved
NO
Any Current US Representative

Will require some sort of proof/confirmation that it is the real user if their account is not marked as Verified.

Creating a limit order counts as making a bet.

The employee questions are for current employees only. Any employee can provide me proof privately for these questions. Please do not dox other users' employment.

If they placed a bet on Manifold during 2024 but before this market's creation, will still resolve YES when proven.

Ends at midnight EST on 31 December 2024.

Moderators are welcome to resolve any of these if I'm offline. No need to ping me.

Feel free to suggest more answers in the comments and I might add them!

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@june Please resolve, thank you!

I resolved all the single person answers. Don't know what to do about the other ones.

@Agh @10thOfficial @traders

I think the biggest question is if these fairly ambiguous or difficult to prove answers with a lack of evidence resolve No or N/A.

Will require some sort of proof/confirmation that it is the real user if their account is not marked as Verified.

My reading of the market description indicates they needed to 'prove' it and anything not proven would resolve No.

If anyone has proof that any of the unresolved answers should resolve Yes, now would be a really good time to share it.

@Eliza Thank you!

@shankypanky if you're around

proof: manifest

bought Ṁ30 NO

yeah looks like June has been afk for a couple of months so I'll have a look

@june are you around? can you please resolve the options in the comments below? 🙏

bought Ṁ388 YES

@nikki woah nice catch

bought Ṁ189 YES

bought Ṁ553 YES

bought Ṁ200 YES

@june I work for Microsoft, so that resolves YES. Message me if you need my email address for verification.

Surprised to see so many answers stay high despite this market passing its peak popularity without anyone from those groups revealing themselves.

bought Ṁ5 YES

Hmm

I'm a Google employee and I just made a bet on this question. Could you resolve it now?

I know users who can resolve a few of these but I don't feel comfortable sharing someone else's employer

@shankypanky Yeah, good opportunity for me to note: no doxxing other users!

@june how do you resolve those then?

@Tomoffer People can provide their own employers, just not the employers of others

They may be doing layoffs but Google employees aren't that rare yet

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