Will the government come after Manifold for gambling on the site before 2026?
14
263
2025
28%
chance

Resolves YES if a US state or federal government agency sues, fines, sends a cease and desist letter, files for an injunction, or shuts down Manifold due to gambling activities on the site.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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bought Ṁ10 NO

Hm, this one seems to have been very overvalued pre-pivot, but now that Manifold will actually involve real-money prizes, it might not be as overvalued.