Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2070?
18
1kṀ4299
2069
80%
chance

"broken" means some entity could actually decrypt it in less than 2 years with the amount of compute they have, without possessing the key, and without side-channel leaks.

(Resolution criteria adapted from a similar market:

Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2033?
15% chance.

)

I know very little about cryptography but have been considering AES-256 to encrypt blog posts, with key to be published posthumously.

Technology
Cryptography
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

lmao why are people still betting this up

I very firmly think no (probability <1%), but I'm not going to bet, for keynesian beauty contest reasons

The NSA allows the "Advanced Encryption Standard (AES), per FIPS 197, using 256 bit keys to protect up to TOP SECRET" data. (Potentially decades or longer until declassification.) It's believed to be quantum resistant.

People are also trading

Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2033?
14% chance
RSA-2048 encryption will be broken by 2032
20% chance
🔓What will happen before RSA-2048 encryption is widely considered broken?
256-bit ECC will be broken by 2032
30% chance
Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?
16% chance
Will RSA-2048 encryption be broken before Bitcoin reaches $150K USD?
15% chance
Will any encryption scheme suggested by the NSA's Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite be broken by April 2028?
25% chance
SHA-256 broken by quantum computer before 2030
10% chance
Will RSA-2048 encryption be broken before the first female president of the USA?
39% chance
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
34% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy