Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2033?
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Will this resolve yes for any kind of "breaking", even if AES256 would still be considered perfectly secure afterwards (for example if there was a way to break AES256 0.3% faster than bruteforce)?

@Primer for purposes of this market, "broken" means some entity could actually decrypt it in less than a decade with the amount of compute they have, without possessing the key, and without side-channel leaks.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

AES has very little interesting mathematical structure. So there's little reason to think that any new "trick" will be discovered to crack it, save brute force