Will a politician be assassinated by a Group 1 drone in a WEIRD country before end of Q1 2025?
84
10kṀ150kresolved Apr 15
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
WEIRD = Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Democracy.
Group 1 drone outlined in this article https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-america-fell-behind-in-drones
Direct quote from Dominic Cummings: "There is no anti drone plan for the cabinet office" https://youtu.be/C-HhIfpBdoQ?si=rk6oS9AfgfJ7VWEk
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,987 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,081 | |
| 3 | Ṁ771 | |
| 4 | Ṁ557 | |
| 5 | Ṁ334 |
People are also trading
Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026?
25% chance
The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Drone Swarm Assassinate a Public Figure by 2040?
74% chance
Will more than ten "national level" politicians in any single western country be killed within twelve months of each other before 2030?
15% chance
Will any prominent AI researcher be assassinated before EOY 2030
28% chance
Will deepfates be assassinated before the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will any prominent AI safety advocate be assassinated before EOY 2030
16% chance
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
42% chance
Will there be an attack on US civilians committed primarily with drones with >9 casualties before 2031?
56% chance
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?
26% chance
Will there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?
68% chance
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026?
25% chance
The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Drone Swarm Assassinate a Public Figure by 2040?
74% chance
Will more than ten "national level" politicians in any single western country be killed within twelve months of each other before 2030?
15% chance
Will any prominent AI researcher be assassinated before EOY 2030
28% chance
Will deepfates be assassinated before the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will any prominent AI safety advocate be assassinated before EOY 2030
16% chance
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
42% chance
Will there be an attack on US civilians committed primarily with drones with >9 casualties before 2031?
56% chance
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?
26% chance
Will there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?
68% chance