Will a politician be assassinated by a Group 1 drone in a WEIRD country before end of Q1 2025?
84
10kṀ150kMar 31
1.3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
WEIRD = Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Democracy.
Group 1 drone outlined in this article https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-america-fell-behind-in-drones
Direct quote from Dominic Cummings: "There is no anti drone plan for the cabinet office" https://youtu.be/C-HhIfpBdoQ?si=rk6oS9AfgfJ7VWEk
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an assassination of an American politician by the end of 2025?
20% chance
Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026?
25% chance
When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by drone?
24% chance
When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by a cheap non state drone within the US?
22% chance
[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
21% chance
The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Drone Swarm Assassinate a Public Figure by 2040?
74% chance
Will more than ten "national level" politicians in any single western country be killed within twelve months of each other before 2030?
15% chance
Will there be an assassination of a US head of Government by the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will any prominent AI researcher be assassinated before EOY 2030
28% chance
Will deepfates be assassinated before the end of 2025?
4% chance