When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by drone?
14
139Ṁ4292125
24%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://twitter.com/ilaffey2/status/1759353732075294766
They're notable if there's a Wikipedia article about them.
If it happens in 2024, it'll resolve 1%; if it happens in 2025, it'll resolve 2%, etc.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by a cheap non state drone within the US?
22% chance
Will a politician be assassinated by a Group 1 drone in a WEIRD country before end of Q1 2025?
6% chance
Will there be an assassination of an American politician by the end of 2025?
20% chance
The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Drone Swarm Assassinate a Public Figure by 2040?
74% chance
Will any prominent AI safety advocate be assassinated before EOY 2030
16% chance
Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026?
42% chance
Will any prominent AI researcher be assassinated before EOY 2030
28% chance
Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030?
16% chance
Will another CEO be assassinated before the next 5 school shootings?
5% chance
[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
21% chance