This market is about prediction #7 from Gary Marcus's predictions for GPT-4. It resolves based on my interpretation of whether that prediction has been met, strongly taking into account arguments from other traders in this market. The full prediction is:

When AGI (artificial intelligence) comes, large language models like GPT-4 may be seen in hindsight as part of the eventual solution, but only as part of the solution. “Scaling” alone—building bigger and models until they absorb the entire internet — will prove useful, but only to a point. Trustworthy, general artificial intelligence, aligned with human values, will come, when it does, from systems that are more structured, with more built-in knowledge, and will incorporate at least some degree of explicit tools for reasoning and planning, as well as explicit it knowledge, that are lacking in systems like GPT. Within a decade, maybe much less, the focus of AI will move from a pure focus on scaling large language models to a focus on integrating them with a wide range of other techniques. In retrospectives written in 2043, intellectual historians will conclude that there was an initial overemphasis on large language models, and a gradual but critical shift of the pendulum back to more structured systems with deeper comprehension.

Unlike the first 6 predictions, this one only resolves once we get AGI, not shortly after GPT-4 releases.