Resolves YES if OpenAI first makes an officially named Astra model version 6.1 or higher publicly usable during the week of Monday, November 2 through Sunday, November 8, 2026, America/Los_Angeles time.

The window begins November 2 at 00:00 PST and ends November 8 at 23:59:59 PST (November 9 at 07:59:59 UTC; 08:00 UTC exclusive). Trading closes at 23:59 PST, one minute before the window ends.

WHAT COUNTS

- Astra 6.1, 6.2, 7, or a later major/minor version in the officially named Astra line qualifies. Existing GPT-6 Astra, 6.0.x patches, silent updates, dated snapshots, new speed modes and aliases of an unchanged version do not.

- Actual availability through an official OpenAI API or product to ordinary customers counts. A paid plan, normal account verification, public preview or rollout available to a non-invitation customer class in at least one region counts; availability to everyone worldwide is not required.

- An announcement without usable access, a waitlist alone, selected testers, private research access, leaks, hidden routing or third-party claims alone do not count.

- Sol, Terra, Luna, Rosalind and other model lines do not count, even if numbered 6.1+ or described as more capable. A renamed flagship without the Astra name does not count.

RESOLUTION

Use OpenAI's official model documentation, API changelog, product release notes or release announcements to establish both model identity and when public access began:

https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/changelog

https://help.openai.com/en/articles/9624314-model-release-notes

A qualifying release can resolve YES as soon as verified. Otherwise resolve NO after the deadline if no qualifying release occurred in the window. A later source may confirm an in-window release; a release after the deadline does not count. If there is a material dispute about identity or access timing that official evidence cannot settle by November 16, 2026, 23:59 PST, resolve N/A rather than guess. Ordinary non-release resolves NO, not N/A.

At creation, the verified current Astra baseline is GPT-6 Astra:

https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/models/gpt-6-astra

Initial probability: 20%, a subjective weekly estimate, not an announced release schedule or a calibrated forecast.

Related longer-horizon market: /Jack1/gpt-astra-61-released-by-end-of-nov . This market uses the specific November 2–8 Pacific week and the release rules above.