This compares the next public release in OpenAI's Astra line with the next public release in Anthropic's Claude Fable line, using Epoch AI's General Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI).
YES: the selected Astra release has a strictly higher General ECI point estimate than the selected Fable release. NO: Astra's score is lower or exactly tied. Missing releases or scores are N/A, not NO.
WHICH RELEASES COUNT?
For each company, select the first new, officially named Astra version 6.1-or-later and Fable version 5.2-or-later, respectively, that becomes publicly usable after this market is created and by March 31, 2027, 23:59 UTC. Version numbers are interpreted as major/minor versions: Astra 6.2 or 7 and Fable 5.3 or 6 qualify, while Astra 6.0.x and Fable 5.1.x do not. The existing GPT-6 Astra and Claude Fable 5.1 are excluded.
Publicly usable means available through an official API or consumer product to ordinary customers without an invitation or individually approved research access; a paid subscription/API and a broadly available public preview count. An announcement alone, leak, private test, or selected-user rollout does not count. A distinct named minor-version release counts; silent updates, aliases, new pricing, and dated snapshots of an unchanged named version do not.
Only the named Astra and Fable lines count. Sol, Terra, Luna, Mythos, Opus, Sonnet, and other differently named lines do not count merely because they are newer or more capable. A renamed or higher-tier flagship without the Astra/Fable name does not qualify. Later releases after the first qualifying release are excluded. If that first release simultaneously offers multiple variants, use the highest General ECI score among those initial variants, not variants released later.
SCORE SNAPSHOT
Use the latest official General ECI data available at April 30, 2027, 23:59 UTC, comparing both selected releases in the SAME dataset snapshot. Oracle: https://epoch.ai/eci . Use General ECI, not Math/SWE/Cyber ECI, confidence-interval bounds, rank, or a handpicked benchmark. If Epoch lists multiple evaluation configurations for the same qualifying release, use its highest General ECI point estimate. Prefer the full precision in Epoch's official downloadable data; otherwise use the published point-estimate precision. Equality at the available precision resolves NO.
Later benchmark additions, recalculations, corrections or releases do not change this snapshot. A preserved official data export or dated archive may establish the snapshot after the deadline. Resolve N/A if either line has no qualifying release by March 31, either qualifying release has no General ECI score in the April 30 snapshot, the required snapshot cannot be reliably recovered, or model identity is materially ambiguous. Do not substitute another company's model, another benchmark, or an unofficial score.
Trading closes March 31, 2027, 23:59 UTC. Planned resolution after the April 30 snapshot is verified, normally by May 7, 2027.
Context at creation: Epoch lists GPT-6 Astra at 169 and Claude Fable 5.1 at 166. The initial 55% is a subjective starting estimate for the NEXT releases, not a calibrated forecast.
https://epoch.ai/models/gpt-6-astra
https://epoch.ai/models/claude-fable-5-1
Related broader market (includes Mythos/higher-tier replacements and different timing): /EvanDaniel/will-the-next-claude-fable-release . This market instead fixes the named-line eligibility and common April 30 snapshot above.
1,000