Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if OpenAI officially releases a model explicitly named "GPT-6" (or clearly designated under the "GPT-6" family name, such as "GPT-6 Sol") for public use, developer preview, or API access on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.

• Source of Truth: Resolution will be verified using official announcements from the OpenAI Blog or the official OpenAI X (formerly Twitter) account.

• Alternative Naming: If OpenAI releases their next-generation frontier model under an entirely different brand name (e.g., bypassing the "GPT" brand entirely) but officially declares it to be their "GPT-6-equivalent" or "sixth-generation flagship model," this market may resolve to YES at the creator's discretion.

• Exclusions: Releases of incremental GPT-5 variants (such as GPT-5.5, GPT-5.6, or potential future iterations like GPT-5.7) or specialized domain models (such as GPT-Rosalind) will not trigger a YES resolution.

• If no such model is released by the deadline, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

OpenAI's model releases have favored incremental iterations under the GPT-5 series. Following the launch of GPT-5.5 (initially codenamed "Spud") in April 2026, OpenAI released the GPT-5.6 family (comprising the Sol, Terra, and Luna models) on July 9, 2026.

While industry speculation and leaks suggest that GPT-6 training may be complete or nearing completion, OpenAI has not yet officially announced a release date or specifications for its next numerical model generation. Traders must predict whether OpenAI will launch its next major frontier leap before the end of 2026, or if the launch will push into 2027.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.