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MANIFOLD
Will a Google model lead METR's task duration chart by EOY?
30
Ṁ1kṀ8.8k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

If a Google model has the longest task length on this chart (50% time horizon) at any point by EOY the market resolves YES:

https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/

Market context
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Google
METR
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Note that models aren’t necessarily put up on the graph in the same order as when they are released. METR may have faster results for models we got pre-release access to, or might prioritize which models we test first. This might lead to weird resolution criteria edge-cases.

opened a Ṁ10,000 YES at 50% order

jim order up for a Google model leading METR's task duration chart by EOY

@jacksonpolack , @Bayesian , @SemioticRivalry , @Velaris , @khang2009 , @Gen , @skibidist , @evan , @brod , @100Anonymous , @Ziddletwix , @Trazyn , @bagelfan , @geuber , @nikki , @ProjectVictory , @sahaj , @bohaska , @Odoacre , @Primer , @David549 , @zsig , @Gurkenglas , @realDonaldTrump

jim orders are large limit orders, generally at better-than-market prices.

Opt in / opt out thread: https://manifold.markets/post/jim-order-notification-optin-thread

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