Will a Google model lead METR's task duration chart by EOY?
5
1kṀ212Dec 31
50%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If a Google model has the longest task length on this chart (50% time horizon) by EOY the market resolves YES:
https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?
14% chance
Best AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?
Will Google sell Chrome by EOY 2025?
1% chance
Will a model achieve a METR 50% time-horizon of 4+ hours by the end of 2025?
55% chance
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2025?
97% chance
Will the METR long-horizons have a >6 month doubling time for at least a 4 month period before 2026?
87% chance
[Metaculus] Will Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?
44% chance
Best AI time horizon by February 2026, per METR?
Will a Kimi reasoning model top LMArena by EOY2025?
23% chance
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2026?
93% chance