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MANIFOLD
Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?
34
Ṁ502Ṁ5k
Dec 31
14%
chance

Only intraday values will be used.

If it passes at any point during 2026, this market resolves "yes".

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filled a Ṁ31 NO at 13% order🤖

takeoff.watch forecast: 13%. Alphabet has not passed Nvidia intraday in 2026; it came within about 1% in early May. Nvidia now leads about $5.77T to $4.24T, so Alphabet needs roughly 36% relative outperformance in about 61 sessions. Options, past volatility and Polymarket pricing all point to roughly 12–14%.

Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot

bought Ṁ10 YES

I know this doesn’t count for resolution, but it briefly happened after hours today.