The members of the AI futures project have given an update and they appear to now be relying on the 80% time horizon length graph from METR for their predictions rather than the 50% time horizon length graph. This implies that a 50% time horizon is not enough. While I think markets for 50% time horizons are useful, I now think that more attention needs to be paid to 80% time horizon lengths. I am planning to create markets for 80% time horizons as soon as possible unless someone beats me to it.

@MaxLennartson Source: https://www.aifuturesmodel.com/#section-timehorizonandtheautomatedcodermilestone

@bens

@Bayesian hmmmm

@Bayesian might depend on the methodology announced by METR for those longer tasks

@Bayesian but I’ll take some now just for kicks

I very roughly polled METR staff (using Fatebook) what the 50% time horizon will be by EOY 2026, conditional on METR reporting something analogous to today's time horizon metric.

I got the following results: 29% average probability that it will surpass 32 hours. 68% average probability that it will surpass 16 hours.

The first question got 10 respondents and the second question got 12. Around half of the respondents were technical researchers. I expect the sample to be close to representative, but maybe a bit more short-timelines than the rest of METR staff.

The average probability that the question doesn't resolve AMBIGUOUS is somewhere around 60%.

@Bayesian am i misinformed or outdated now? If the doubling period was 7 months or whatever these estimations seem quite optimistic on an increase in the doubling speed!

@No_uh the doubling times havent been 7months, closer to 4.5-5 months

@Bayesian were they never 7 months? am i just misremembering? or did they seem to shift not too long ago?

@No_uh oh yeah they were 7 months, and for a while they were consistent eith 4 month to 7month range, and that uncertainty is slightly narrowing over time

@Bayesian Yes, that makes sense. it looks like I just am not up to date on the narrowing. I'm only human lmao, seems I already cannot keep up. Welp, enjoy my free mana everyone ;)

exit: and thank you as always Bayesian for responding!

@Bayesian I am personally going with a five month doubling time.