has WWIII begun?
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Will historians generally agree that WWIII had begun by the time this market was created (April 15 2024)?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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When did WWII begin? I think most historians say it started when Germany invaded Poland, even though there were earlier wars that eventually became part of the main conflict (e.g., Japan invading China).
In the same way, even if a currently existing war expands into a global conflict (which I highly doubt), it won't count as the actual start date.
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