Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a World War III begins in 2026. A "world war" applies to armed conflicts between major world powers spanning multiple regions of the globe. Resolution requires:

1. Direct military conflict between major powers (US, China, Russia, or equivalent) across multiple geographic regions

2. Formal declarations of war or equivalent by at least two major powers against each other, or undeniable open hostilities that persist for a sustained period

3. Involvement of multiple continents or a clear global dimension to the conflict

The market resolves NO if no such conflict begins by December 31, 2026. Regional wars, proxy conflicts, or escalations that remain geographically limited do not qualify as World War III.

Background

Various conflicts, most significantly the Russo-Ukrainian war (2022–present), the Middle Eastern crisis (2023–present), and rising tensions over the status of Taiwan, have been perceived as flashpoints for a third world war. Experts from institutions like RAND Corporation, Chatham House, and Brookings place the risk of a global conflict by 2026 at moderate but rising — often cited as 20–30% depending on events in Asia or Eastern Europe.

A multipolar system is emerging, with the U.S., China, and Russia asserting competing spheres of influence. The U.S. and China are locked in strategic competition over technology, military dominance, trade, and global influence. Taiwan, the South China Sea, and economic decoupling are all pressure points.

Considerations

Military scholars say comparisons to past world wars are largely overblown. While a full-scale world war — involving dozens of countries across multiple continents — remains unlikely in the immediate term, the risk of a large-scale, multi-front conflict is the highest it has been in decades. The distinction between regional escalation and true global war is critical for resolution.