
Will WW3 have begun by 2028?
46
1kṀ25822028
14%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between January 14, 2024 (day of creation of the question) and January 1, 2028, there is a military conflict involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP in PPP or 50% of world population in any month in which the conflict is ongoing.
Thanks to @Jgalt for inspiration of operationalization. Suggestions of refinements are welcome.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will WW3 begin before 2040?
31% chance
Will WW3 happen in the end of 2025 ?
5% chance
Will historians say that WW3 started by 2023?
10% chance
2030: Will the World War III be named to start in 2023?
4% chance
has WWIII begun?
4% chance
Will there be WW3 before 2045?
33% chance
USA participates in WW3 before 2028?
10% chance
Will there be WW3 before 2100?
76% chance
Will there be WW3 before 2035?
27% chance
Will there be WW3 before 2075?
75% chance