Will WW3 have begun by 2028?
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2028
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This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between January 14, 2024 (day of creation of the question) and January 1, 2028, there is a military conflict involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP in PPP or 50% of world population in any month in which the conflict is ongoing.

Thanks to @Jgalt for inspiration of operationalization. Suggestions of refinements are welcome.

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Shouldn't there be a clause that the two sides are evenly matched (at least within a order of magnitude)?

Several NATO countries participated in the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, and they probably added up to well over 30% of world GDP, but no one would call that a world war.

Some relevant info and thoughts:

  1. Market on Taiwan invasion: https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan

  2. Noahpinion on the US capabilities (https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/were-not-ready-for-the-big-one) and on why China may want to shoot US bases if they invade (https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-i-think-an-invasion-of-taiwan)

  3. Some explainations on why the US & UK have decided to start shooting the Houthis in Yemen (https://asiatimes.com/2024/01/why-biden-finally-attacked-the-houthis/)

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