Will WW3 have begun by 2028?
46
1kṀ2582
2028
14%
chance

This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between January 14, 2024 (day of creation of the question) and January 1, 2028, there is a military conflict involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP in PPP or 50% of world population in any month in which the conflict is ongoing.

Thanks to @Jgalt for inspiration of operationalization. Suggestions of refinements are welcome.

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