Resolves based on the highest value on this graph on September 1, 2026:
https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/
Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks
50% Success
Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): NO = doubling time of >10 months (not <10 months as might be initially interpreted)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ43 | |
| 2 | Ṁ36 | |
| 3 | Ṁ32 | |
| 4 | Ṁ14 | |
| 5 | Ṁ12 |
People are also trading
The members of the AI futures project have given an update and they appear to now be relying on the 80% time horizon length graph from METR for their predictions rather than the 50% time horizon length graph. This implies that a 50% time horizon is not enough. While I think markets for 50% time horizons are useful, I now think that more attention needs to be paid to 80% time horizon lengths. I am planning to create markets for 80% time horizons either tonight or some other time this week unless someone beats me to it.
NO = doubling time of >10 months (up to a certain approximation)
(edit: jim is right, original had typo)