The members of the AI futures project have given an update and they appear to now be relying on the 80% time horizon length graph from METR for their predictions rather than the 50% time horizon length graph. This implies that a 50% time horizon is not enough. While I think markets for 50% time horizons are useful, I now think that more attention needs to be paid to 80% time horizon lengths. I am planning to create markets for 80% time horizons either tonight or some other time this week unless someone beats me to it.

@MaxLennartson Source: https://www.aifuturesmodel.com/#section-timehorizonandtheautomatedcodermilestone

NO = doubling time of >10 months (up to a certain approximation)
(edit: jim is right, original had typo)

@Bayesian you mean ">10", yeah.