Will US unemployment be 10% or more before 2030?
24
Ṁ1kṀ1.4k2030
27%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
"unemployment" refers to the monthly unemployment rate published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The monthly US unemployment rate has been 10% or more on three occasions since recording began: 2020 (14.7%), 2009 (10.0%), and 1982 (10.8%).
See data from BLS or St Louis Fed below:
Will the United States have an unemployment rate of 10% or more in any month before the end of this decade?
See also:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18664/us-unemployment-rate-10-before-2031/
Metaculus way higher (for 2031).
Dario Amodei, when speaking with Axios, says AI may cause 10-20% unemployment spike in the next one to five years.
People are also trading
Related questions
Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2035?
26% chance
Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2030?
9% chance
Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?
21% chance
Will the US unemployment rate exceed 10% again before 2030?
26% chance
Will US unemployment be 20% or more before 2030?
16% chance
Will US unemployment be 15% or more before 2030?
14% chance
Will US unemployment be 25% or more before 2030?
11% chance
Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026?
62% chance
Will US unemployment get above 6% in 2026?
23% chance
Will world unemployment reach 20% at any time before 2030?
23% chance