Will the US unemployment rate exceed 10% again before 2030?
11
565
2030
28%
chance

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE to be used as a resolution source.

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The data series shows me 3 events in the past 7 decades, for a rate of 0.043 per year, or 0.257 per 6-year window. This calculator gives me a 22.7% base rate for that.