Paul avatar
closes Dec 31, 2030
By end of 2030, will any US company be worth $10 trillion, in inflation adjusted 2022 dollars?
24%
chance

Resolved based on market cap, adjusted by CPI with respect to Jan. 2022 CPI.

Nov 23, 3:11pm: By 2030, will any US company be worth $10 trillion, in inflation adjusted 2022 dollars? → By end of 2030, will any US company be worth $10 trillion, in inflation adjusted 2022 dollars?

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Gigacasting avatar

Only coherent piece I’ve ever seen about “alignment” by someone at least adjacent to that religion:

https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6821

Gigacasting avatar

(more directly, so far AI has not been winner take all, clearly the early commercial ML profits flowed to existing monopolies, but for “AI” almost every paper is replicated quite quickly, some have been trained <1m, and generally there’s widespread parity—and the absence of moats, network effects, things that drive true profits

May change, but the speed of the field and fact that performance is logarithmic in cost tends to level things—

AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartman
bought Ṁ50 of NO

If you're adjusting for inflation, this seems incredibly improbable.

Paul avatar

@AndrewHartman I agree, but there's some who believe there's a tail likelihood of AI creating trillions in value. This long-term market can be related to that possibility without having the resolution be dependent on the adjudicator needing to decide if the value is because of AI or not.

AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartman
is predicting NO at 23%

@Paul Yeah, that's one possible path. Pretty much any transformative patent is a possible contender, so something like a viable life extension treatment or whatever is also a candidate.

Using this market to fleece the tech optimists is a cause I support, in principle, but it's worth recalling that most of the people who think that powerful AI is around the corner also think it's going to kill us all (and thus no company will own it in order to achieve such a valuation, as indeed, the exchange is unlikely to survive either). So it's trickier to force guys like Eli to put their (fake) money where their mouth is so you can part them from it.

ManifoldDream avatar

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