🏅 Top traders

that was NOT an enlightened chad move

Resolves Yes

Man who could have ever predicted this? Shocking, I am SHOCKED.

@Balasar It's at least a little bit interesting that overwhelmingly the site didn't predict this

@JoshuaWilkes I think it’s hard for markets to predict self-referential behaviors like this because I think if the markets were the other way (more likely to resolve wrongly) then someone like Peter would have resolved normally to spite those people. But also I think Manifold users are far too generous in their estimations of other people on the site. Maybe because they believe participation in a website like this tends to self-select for quality people.

@Balasar Maaaaaybe on the first point, but really that's an argument that it shouldn't have gone above 33% ish not 5%. And with regards to estimations of his character, I think it was pretty clear a long time ago

his grief in the comments suggests he understands the outcome

@brod dude is cratering

He seems like a reasonable man with powerful political convictions. Not sure he has any reason to misresolve, he is just waiting for the more official results.

Here is a different market that includes the case that he sits on it and does nothing for an unreasonable amount of time: https://manifold.markets/Balasar/will-peter-njeims-canada-pm-market?play=true

@Balasar I like this formulation, reposted.

What if he doesn't do anything and manifold resolves?

I am not the market creator but failing to resolve in a timely manner seems like a misresolution to me. Certainly, I think such an event would cause "significant community backlash".

@Balasar 'waiting' is not a 'resolution' so I don't think it can be a 'misresolution'

Waiting is not a misresolution. And certainly not waiting for official confirmation while all major markets are still trading.

@bence Nonsense, obviously the market will get resolved at some point, even if it has to be done by a mod. When it does get resolved, if it took too long to get to that point, there will have already "significant community backlash or disagreement with his resolution" because of its lack of timeliness. Any reasonable reading of this market should include the case where he sits on it for weeks and refuses to resolve.

@Balasar the description says

Will he resolve the market incorrectly?

and also

This market will resolve YES if Peter Njeim incorrectly resolves his market about the next Canadian prime minister after the 2025 election

which sounds pretty clear to me. If a mod resolves instead of Peter, then Peter will not have resolved incorrectly, and this market resolves NO.

@jgyou Refusing to resolve is a choice. But fine, if that's how this market is going to behave in response to such an even, I'll make my own market that answers the interesting question here.

Sounds good to me. My market is pretty clear, and will behave just like @bence said.

Given the currently available information, he'd need to resolve to anything other than "Mark Carney (or other Liberal leader)" for this market to resolve to YES -- with subsequent community outrage (count on this, Manifold loves to nitpick) and moderator actions.

Feel like I’m stashing my mana in a bond market with these margins. I just hope I don’t get screwed.

@LBeesley no one ever defaulted on high yield bonds right 😇

@jgyou

@LBeesley lol

@dlin007 happy to report I sold off before the shit hit the fan. I got out with a whopping 3 mana profit. Hahaha