Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Canadian federal election is held on or before April 30, 2027. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

Background:

Canada has recently conducted a federal election on April 28, 2025, resulting in the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, forming a minority government. (reuters.com) Under the Canada Elections Act, federal elections are scheduled every four years, with the next fixed date being October 15, 2029. However, the prime minister can request the governor general to dissolve Parliament, potentially leading to an earlier election. Parliament can also vote a lack of confidence in the government. Given the current minority government status, the likelihood of an election occurring before April 30, 2027 depends on the stability of the government and its ability to maintain confidence in the House of Commons.