What be Manifold’s response to Peter Njeim’s sketchy resolution of the 2025 Canadian election market? (Add answers!)

1.3kṀ9463

Dec 31

97%

Peter Njeim is permanently banned

95%

Tumbles’ loan repayments are cancelled

33%

The main “Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan” market will be resolved by a mod

20%

Adding a market setting or flag/filter where the market owner can't trade in that market

10%

The main "Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?" market will resolve N/A

10%

Manifold changes mechanics/permissions required for managrams

Tumbles is bailed (>2mil loan/transfer) by non-staff/non-admin user

Tumbles is bailed out by Manifold

Mods approval needed to resolve high worth markets

Resolved

YES

Tumbles is banned temporarily (i.e. not permanently)

Resolved

N/A

N/A, option added by mistake

Clarifications:

“X is permanently banned” resolves YES if the mods state that X is being banned permanently, or if no statement is made, if this person is banned and remains banned until the end of the year
“X is banned temporarily” resolves YES if this person is banned then unbanned before the end of the year, or otherwise, if the mods state that a ban on X is temporary
“Tumbles is bailed out by Manifold” resolves YES if any Tumbles is given any loan or unconditional transfer from Manifold or a Manifold admin of any quantity
“Mods approval needed to resolve high worth markets” resolves YES if Manifold sets any mana limit on markets over which moderator approval is needed to resolve the market

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bought Ṁ500 YES

Tumbles has been unbanned, can we resolve this?
https://manifold.markets/Tumbles

@Robincvgr na this please

bought Ṁ10 NO

Curious why Peter permanent ban is so much higher than Tumbles permanent ban (especially before my bets) considering that both participated in the same scheme?

@A Peter pulled the trigger on the misresolve, mass blasted slurs in the resolution, blocked everyone to make sure the mods weren't called, and doesn't seem likely to contest his ban. Tumbles didn't pull the trigger, is still being silly with it, and could still try to contest.

@A keeping up with the latest Tumbles antics drives 50% of the site traffic. too big to fail

what is happening—

@Qoiuoiuoiu Here’s a TL;TR I saw in the comments for the Tumbles loan repayment market – a bunch of other comments in that market are talking about what happened in more detail:

https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba#aqhjpqym517

@invisiblevision appreciate it, thanks

Based on this comment thread, looks some people are having their loan repayments from Tumbles cancelled (in the form of Manifold deducting the sum as “counterfeit”) – I’ll wait until all the dust settles before resolving that answer though:

https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba#gdljavtzgmn

"Tumbles is banned temporarily" resolves yes

@NoAnswer How does one tell whether this ban is permanent or not?

@invisiblevision Updated the description to clarify that “X is temporarily banned” will only resolve YES if their ban ends before the end of the year, or the mods declare that the ban is only temporary.

oof

sold Ṁ16 YES

@invisiblevision christ this would have been good to know before I bet it up to 99% cuz

@brod Crap, sorry!! In my head “temporary” necessarily implied that the ban would not be permanent – this is only my third question, I’ll make sure to fully flesh out answers before adding them in the future.