Clarifications:
“X is permanently banned” resolves YES if the mods state that X is being banned permanently, or if no statement is made, if this person is banned and remains banned until the end of the year
“X is banned temporarily” resolves YES if this person is banned then unbanned before the end of the year, or otherwise, if the mods state that a ban on X is temporary
“Tumbles is bailed out by Manifold” resolves YES if any Tumbles is given any loan or unconditional transfer from Manifold or a Manifold admin of any quantity
“Mods approval needed to resolve high worth markets” resolves YES if Manifold sets any mana limit on markets over which moderator approval is needed to resolve the market
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@BlackCrusade I’ve realized that this is a deeper problem with this market – how do we determine whether something Manifold does is because of all this, or just something they’re doing for literally any other reason (if they don’t explicitly say). Without addressing that in some way, this market is functionally equivalent to “What will Manifold do in the next year?” which is no fun.
@traders Would folks be on board with adding an additional blanket resolution criteria to address this? Something like: “An answer will only resolve YES if either a Manifold mod states it was done, at least in part, as a response to Peter Njeim’s resolution of the 2025 Canadian Election market, or if no reason is given by the end of the year.” This allows for a YES resolution even if Manifold officially gives an unrelated reason, if a mod elsewhere is able to confirm that it was done at least in part as a response.
If folks don’t want to make a change after so many bets have been placed that’s fine too, I just might change the title then to reflect the fact that a relevant reason is not a necessary condition for a YES resolution.
@A Peter pulled the trigger on the misresolve, mass blasted slurs in the resolution, blocked everyone to make sure the mods weren't called, and doesn't seem likely to contest his ban. Tumbles didn't pull the trigger, is still being silly with it, and could still try to contest.
@Qoiuoiuoiu Here’s a TL;TR I saw in the comments for the Tumbles loan repayment market – a bunch of other comments in that market are talking about what happened in more detail:
https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba#aqhjpqym517
Based on this comment thread, looks some people are having their loan repayments from Tumbles cancelled (in the form of Manifold deducting the sum as “counterfeit”) – I’ll wait until all the dust settles before resolving that answer though:
https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba#gdljavtzgmn
@invisiblevision Updated the description to clarify that “X is temporarily banned” will only resolve YES if their ban ends before the end of the year, or the mods declare that the ban is only temporary.
@brod Crap, sorry!! In my head “temporary” necessarily implied that the ban would not be permanent – this is only my third question, I’ll make sure to fully flesh out answers before adding them in the future.
@invisiblevision yeh no sorry it’s alright could have asked for clarification i can take the L