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I’ve seen enough.

Does this count? (He's changed the title to past tense.) 24 reasons that Trump won - by Nate Silver

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Good looking out

Nate Cohn is a better source on election night tbh

Ask and ye shall receive: https://manifold.markets/jdilla/will-nate-cohn-call-the-2024-electi

@PlainBG there is an even better source - David Wasserman is the final boss of this genre tbh

@dlin007 All you. I’m maxed out.

@jdilla might do it but i'm broke as a churchmouse

@dlin007 I broke: https://manifold.markets/jdilla/will-david-wasserman-call-the-2024?r=amRpbGxh

Does he have to call it before some other group, or is a public opinion on his part stating who he thinks is going to win enough?

Secondary question - Silver tends to think and speak in probabilistic terms. What level of confidence would you need him to express to count (for you) as "calling it"?

The only thing that matters is when he calls it - doesn't matter if the AP does it before him or whatever.

I probabilistic forecast doesn't count (e.g., what he has on the Silver Bulletin page today).

It's got to be definitive: "I've seen enough, Candidate X is going to be the winner"

Gotcha - and before 4 pm ET. Yeah, no way he does that haha. The closest he'd get will be "my forecast has so and so at 60%, but I'd bet on it being closer to 80% or so" or something along those lines.

4 am ET - so early morning Wednesday morning

@MattP @Jubs FYI James' comment below mine corrected a misconception I'd had - he's talking about early morning after the election, not the morning of the election.