Will Nate Cohn call the 2024 election on election night?
Will Nate Cohn call the 2024 election on election night?
14
1kṀ3101resolved Nov 6
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Must be called by 4 am ET after the election (technically Wednesday morning)
A tweet, interview, blog post - anything that is verified from Nate will count (e.g., I’ve seen enough)
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Closing since it’s 4 am. I can’t find anything but will look harder tomorrow. If you find something with a timestamp please post it.
I’d have to see how it looks but I think no. This is Nate Cohn, not the NYT election desk. There is obviously room for interpretation here (eg if Nate retweets the needle saying it’s over, I’d count that).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.