Basic
11
1.7k
Nov 7
40%
chance

Must be called by 4 am ET after the election (technically Wednesday morning)

A tweet, interview, blog post - anything that is verified from Nate will count (e.g., I’ve seen enough)

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Does the Needle calling the election with high confidence count?

I’d have to see how it looks but I think no. This is Nate Cohn, not the NYT election desk. There is obviously room for interpretation here (eg if Nate retweets the needle saying it’s over, I’d count that).