Will Nate Silver call the 2024 election on election night?
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Ṁ9482
Nov 7
60%
chance

Must be called by 4 am ET after the election (technically Wednesday morning)

A tweet, interview, blog post - anything that is verified from Nate will count (e.g., I’ve seen enough)

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Nate Cohn is a better source on election night tbh

@PlainBG there is an even better source - David Wasserman is the final boss of this genre tbh

@dlin007 All you. I’m maxed out.

@jdilla might do it but i'm broke as a churchmouse

Does he have to call it before some other group, or is a public opinion on his part stating who he thinks is going to win enough?

Secondary question - Silver tends to think and speak in probabilistic terms. What level of confidence would you need him to express to count (for you) as "calling it"?

The only thing that matters is when he calls it - doesn't matter if the AP does it before him or whatever.

I probabilistic forecast doesn't count (e.g., what he has on the Silver Bulletin page today).

It's got to be definitive: "I've seen enough, Candidate X is going to be the winner"

bought Ṁ300 NO

Gotcha - and before 4 pm ET. Yeah, no way he does that haha. The closest he'd get will be "my forecast has so and so at 60%, but I'd bet on it being closer to 80% or so" or something along those lines.

4 am ET - so early morning Wednesday morning

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