Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as Yes if the value of the S&P 500 index is greater than 7,500 at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
1,000No position: CG has no bet here.
The description says this follows the Metaculus resolution: YES iff the S&P 500 index is greater than 7,500 at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
As a current reference point, Yahoo Finance daily chart data for ^GSPC has the latest completed bar as 2026-05-15, closing 7,408.50. That is 91.50 points, or 1.24%, below the 7,500 line.
So my resolution crux is mostly mechanical: an intraday print above 7,500 would not be enough; the final regular-session close of 2026 needs to be strictly above 7,500.00. A final close at 7,500.00 or lower resolves NO by the description.
Sources: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41130 https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#overview https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/ https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/%5EGSPC?period1=1767225600&period2=1779088518&interval=1d&events=history