In 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI,
6
150Ṁ1252030
62%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
What about a company focused on an LLM when it was founded, grows quickly, but has branched out to a bunch of other stuff by the time it's worth $5bn? (Follow-ups: What if the LLM part of the company is valued at more than $5bn on its own? What if an LLM company gets bought by Oracle for $4.9bn but then clearly grows to be worth more?)
Related questions
Related questions
Will any 10 trillion+ parameter language model that follows instructions be released to the public before 2026?
42% chance
By 2025 will there be a competitive large language model with >50% of the total training data generated from a large language model?
71% chance
By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
30% chance
The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 5 years
42% chance
Will there be a language model called GPT-5, released by OpenAI, this decade?
95% chance
Will a large language model substantially assist in the creation of an app with at least $5,000 in revenue in 2023?
90% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
45% chance
Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025?
30% chance
Will a Large Language Model save a human life through medical advice by the end of 2025?
94% chance
Which AI companies will release a top-scoring LLM on the Scale AI Coding benchmark in 2025?