Will US housing prices go up between April and June?
14
13
αΉ10KαΉ101
resolved Sep 1
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves based on the Case-Shiller US national home price index https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA. The most recent reported value was for Feb 2022. Resolves YES if the value of the index for June 2022 is higher than the value for April 2022.
Background on some factors that are likely important to housing prices:
- Interest rates are rising currently as the Fed combats inflation. Rising interest rates typically lead to lower house prices, because by making mortgages more expensive it reduces the affordability of housing. However, this trend may not be holding right now: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/31/upshot/home-prices-mortgage-rates.html
- The stock market has fallen sharply over the past few months. Housing prices and the stock market have some complex interactions, but they are typically positively correlated. One reason is that as the economy worsens, potential home buyers are less able to afford expensive houses.
- There's a shortage in the house building industry due to pandemic-related supply chain problems: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/29/1089174630/housing-shortage-new-home-construction-supply-chain
Related: https://manifold.markets/jack/how-will-ny-housing-prices-change-o
Close date updated to 2022-09-01 11:59 pm
Get αΉ200 play money
π Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | αΉ19 | |
2 | αΉ19 | |
3 | αΉ19 | |
4 | αΉ17 | |
5 | αΉ12 |
Related questions
Will the US housing market, measured by transactions, recover next year?
40% chance
[REDFIN] Will US home prices fall 1% YoY in Q2 or Q3 2024?
39% chance
Will the average single family home price in the US be higher at the end of 2024 than it is now?
73% chance
Will Real Estate Prices in the US increase by at least 25% by the end of 2027?
31% chance
Will the S&P/Case-Schiller U.S. National Home Price Index (CSUSHPINSA) Be Below 215.0 by June 1st, 2024?
4% chance
Will September 2024 YoY housing CPI exceed 2%?
74% chance
Will there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?
27% chance
Will September 2024 YoY housing CPI exceed 1%?
81% chance
Will the USA housing market crash before 2024?
3% chance