One last note because I guess I'm not done thinking about this market yet; it bugged me yesterday as well.

Current ZHVI values and BLS numbers (not sure if these include this morning's inflation data)

Assuming no other data revisions, the November 2025 number would need to be ~$8,694 higher (367,935 or higher) for this to resolve as true.

Zillow says they update data on 16th of each month, so this may indeed be final data on all sources, but I still think its too early for resolution even if the no position looks solid.

I also worry about the risk of this being annulled as Zillow made a rather significant change this year to how they compute the data hence my failure to replicate the example numbers given by MetaCalculus. At a minimum, I think this risk is big enough to wait for MetaCalculus' resolution.

@traders

Copy to @Robincvgr as well since I see them trading this too.

@WalterMartin Should resolve No. The current values are as follows (ZHVI value, inflation-adjusted):

Nov 2025: 359241.2488, $285,325.81
Nov 2024: 358842.4282, $285,009.05
Nov 2023: 349927.1863, $277,928.16

2023->2024: 2.55%
2024->2025: 0.11%

Inflation-adjusted using the BLS inflation calculator in the Metaculus description. I used Sep. 2025 for the inflation adjustment for Nov 2025, assuming there was no deflation from Sep. 2025 to Nov. 2025, the value for Nov 2025 should be even lower.

@spiderduckpig I did the same. Here is why I sold out after taking a second look.

1. If you read the description, ZHVI released numbers are only estimates and get updated after the fact. The meta calculus description implies to me that this is resolvable only after the December update.

2. I’m not sure exactly how the inflation adjustment works. I tried to use BLS calc but my numbers didn’t match metcalc’s numbers from the example provided of the prior year.

3. In any event your numbers are way off. The 2025 shouldn’t need inflation adjustment at all. The other numbers look off by $100,000 maybe?

I think this ultimately resolves no but there is enough uncertainty that resolving it now is premature in my opinion.

@creator

@spiderduckpig please note that resolution criteria for this market are based on Metaculus resolution, not my own assessment of housing prices.

@MRME

1. This should be the December update.

2. Do you mean the values before ZHVI is inflation adjusted, or you mean you're getting the same values for ZHVI, but different results from the BLS calculator?

3. I adjusted them all to 2020 dollars. Of course, the specific date adjusted to should not matter, just the ratio.

@spiderduckpig

1. It needs to be the December update not only for Zillow but also for inflation numbers (which just came out today; unclear if these are in BLS calculator or not).

2. Read the metacalculus example and try to replicate it using your datasource. The numbers in the datasource don't match the metacalculus example. If you read the metacalculus thread, it appears Zillow at some point changed their formula/something with dataset.

3. Fair enough, but also not how the market specifies doing it. Agree that it shouldn't matter.

@MRME

1. Yes, I mentioned we only had the Sep data, though we should have all the data necessary at this point, both CPI and ZHVI.

2. Yes, I noticed there was a difference with the ZHVI index values, I was unsure whether you were pointing to the inflation calculator as the cause or the ZHVI index. However, I believe the differences in ZHVI values are relatively insubstantial: you can't replicate the exact values, but the general trend appears the exact same.

3. Where does it specify using 2025 dollars instead of 2020 dollars? Does it say that on Metaculus? In any case, we can use 2025 dollars for clarity.

@spiderduckpig

Fair enough. I guess it doesn't specify 2025 dollars but in the example it is pretty clear they adjusted to 2024 for the prior year.

I'm not arguing for a yes resolution here by the way; I just wanted to explain why I didn't hold onto my position since I feel like there is still a small (but non zero) level of resolution risk remaining.

@MRME I agree, I think there's a decent chance it is resolved N/A even if it's not YES, depending on how significant they think the changes are.