How will NY housing prices change over the next month?

I'm likely to buy a home in NY in the near future, and would like to forecast the likely near-term trend in the housing market. Resolution: Resolves according to data from the Case-Shiller New York Home Price Index https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NYXRSA. The most recent values are 255.25 for Jan 2022 and 258.37 for Feb 2022 (a 1.2% increase over that month). Let X be the index value for May 2022, and let Y be the index value for June 2022. Let R = (Y - X) / X i.e. the relative change between those two data points. Resolves as the value R * 25 + 0.5, i.e. a 0% change resolves as 50%, a 1% increase resolves as 75%, and a 1% decrease resolves as 25%. Values below 0 or above 1 resolve as 0 or 1, respectively. Some factors that are likely important to housing prices: - Interest rates are rising currently as the Fed combats inflation. Rising interest rates typically lead to lower house prices, because by making mortgages more expensive it reduces the affordability of housing. However, this trend may not be holding right now: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/31/upshot/home-prices-mortgage-rates.html - The stock market has fallen sharply over the past few months. Housing prices and the stock market have some complex interactions, but they are typically positively correlated. One reason is that as the economy worsens, potential home buyers are less able to afford expensive houses. - There's a shortage in the house building industry due to pandemic-related supply chain problems: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/29/1089174630/housing-shortage-new-home-construction-supply-chain Related: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-us-housing-prices-go-up-betwee Close date updated to 2022-09-01 11:59 pm

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