See Austin's comment explaining what he means in more detail

I think it's quite unlikely (<2%) that we would deliberately and retroactively publish everyone's DMs. I'm primarily musing about us changing this mechanism sometime in the future (with ample warning). Again, probably the best reference class is what happened with bets.

More caveats:

• I could imagine deciding to publish a DM if eg I noticed someone making concrete plans to bomb Manifest 2024

• Historically, our record at keeping things private hasn't been great (see private groups), so caveat emptor

• If you care about private messaging, I'd suggest eg exchanging contacts on Signal or sth instead of relying on Manifold DMs. DMs are currently a pretty minor feature, so you may be better served by a product whose differentiating feature is its privacy

https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/is-it-bad-that-manifold-publicizes#t6z1WYCknGRRU6LvAbCJ

Is it bad that Manifold publicizes significant information about its users?

Up until today, significant information was publicly available about new users- everything they clicked on and interacted with on the site. [image]Additionally, per the Discord, there may be exploits through which people may be able to figure out your IP/City. Were you aware of this information, and is this on-balance bad?

Ah, a canary DM! Perfect. This is a great operationalization of the question "how private should I consider my own DMs on Manifold to be?" Is that right that you intend this question to approximate that, for an average Manifold user?

Related clarifying question: What if someone targets you specifically? Like they hack your laptop or whatever. Something that gets the attacker access to the canary DM but not in a way that should be a Bayesian update for anyone else on how reliably private their own DMs are.

It would be nice to rule that out. Like I might think it's very unlikely that Manifold has a security breach like this, but if I bet too heavily on NO then maybe it becomes an assassination market but for hacking you.

@dreev

This is a great operationalization of the question "how private should I consider my own DMs on Manifold to be?" Is that right that you intend this question to approximate that, for an average Manifold user?

Yeah, that was exactly the intent.

What if someone targets you specifically? Like they hack your laptop or whatever. Something that gets the attacker access to the canary DM but not in a way that should be a Bayesian update for anyone else on how reliably private their own DMs are.

That's why the resolution criteria says "content of that DM is revealed publicly by Manifold" - a hack on me wouldn't be revealed by Manifold. But yeah I should clarify that more.

Resolves YES if the content of that DM is revealed publicly by Manifold

If you accidentally reveal it(maybe you're streaming on Twitch and view your Manifold DMs for a second), would it be disqualified?

If the leaker refuses to tell you how they got it, so the possibility remains that you accidentally leaked it, will you decline to resolve until it's been proven Manifold was responsible?

@Mira If I accidentally reveal it would be N/Aed.

Edit: see comments below

If somebody does exploit a security vulnerability to reveal it, they should take note of the rules which require disclosing the vulnerability to the devs, not exploiting it.

Markets that reward rule-breaking should probably be avoided, so it might be prudent to make some tweaks to the resolution criteria. Perhaps the question should resolve YES if someone reports a vulnerability that could be used to reveal the information, even if they don't actually do it. I recall that @SirSalty recently edited a market from something like "Will a vulnerability like xyz be exploited?" to "Will a vulnerability like xyz be reported?" Any thoughts? I can always create a new market if anyone cares about the difference enough.

Ok, I edited it as described there. If anyone cares let me know and I'll refund you or recreate the market.