How likely is a DM sent today to remain private?

I sent a DM between myself and my alt @Jack2 containing random text for the purpose of this market. Resolves YES if before 2025, the content of that DM is revealed publicly by Manifold, whether intentionally or unintentionally, for any reason; or if someone reports a security vulnerability which would reveal the content of the DM. Otherwise NO.

This counts Manifold (or any member of the Manifold team) intentionally choosing to release the data, and also counts a Manifold bug that unintentionally reveals the data. It also counts a reported security vulnerability that would, if exploited, reveal the data - please note that exploiting such a vulnerability is against the Manifold rules and will not resolve this market positively, you should instead report it to the Manifold devs.

This does not count someone opening my laptop and finding the message and posting it publicly (that wouldn't be revealed "by Manifold")

(I will not reveal it myself, obviously. If I somehow accidentally reveal it, resolves N/A)

Related to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-any-private-message-on-manifol.

Context:

I'm uncertain that DMs will stay private forever

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@Austin

https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/is-it-bad-that-manifold-publicizes#lyu3FXSd7HuScQKaldnY

I think it's quite unlikely (<2%) that we would deliberately and retroactively publish everyone's DMs. I'm primarily musing about us changing this mechanism sometime in the future (with ample warning). Again, probably the best reference class is what happened with bets.

More caveats:

• I could imagine deciding to publish a DM if eg I noticed someone making concrete plans to bomb Manifest 2024

• Historically, our record at keeping things private hasn't been great (see private groups), so caveat emptor

• If you care about private messaging, I'd suggest eg exchanging contacts on Signal or sth instead of relying on Manifold DMs. DMs are currently a pretty minor feature, so you may be better served by a product whose differentiating feature is its privacy

https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/is-it-bad-that-manifold-publicizes#t6z1WYCknGRRU6LvAbCJ

Is it bad that Manifold publicizes significant information about its users?

Up until today, significant information was publicly available about new users- everything they clicked on and interacted with on the site. [image]Additionally, per the Discord, there may be exploits through which people may be able to figure out your IP/City. Were you aware of this information, and is this on-balance bad?