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It took a while but this just happened:
https://apnews.com/article/alabama-frozen-embryos-pause-4cf5d3139e1a6cbc62bc5ad9946cc1b8
"Alabama hospital puts pause on IVF in wake of ruling saying frozen embryos are children"
This could potentially still end up getting resolved in such a way that IVF is allowed. The ruling wasn't about IVF specifically, but even if it doesn't disallow IVF completely it appears to at least create significant legal risks for IVF providers. https://apnews.com/article/ivf-frozen-embryo-alabama-court-7c968cc00201731d7baba5a284655b0d
Based on the previous discussion and another literature search, I think this is a NO. If there are any counterarguments, comment with them, otherwise I will resolve soon.
I examined this legal analysis of "State Abortion Laws Potential Implications for Reproductive Medicine" https://www.asrm.org/news-and-publications/asrms-response-to-the-dobbs-v-jackson-ruling/dobbs/state-law-summaries/
For each state, under "Does this law have a potential impact on IVF/Reproductive medicine?" the answers are something like "Seemingly no impact on IVF or other ART procedures." or "It does not appear that current abortion restrictions in Kansas will apply to IVF or other reproductive medicine services outside the context of a pregnancy."
There is one state that are more unclear, Utah, where their analysis is that the statute is ambiguous and could potentially be interpreted to have an impact on assisted reproductive technology, but I didn't find any reporting of a substantial actual impact.
This (the articles and worry, not the market) is just fear porn.
IVF clinics would speak up if demand had collapsed, or (basically the group controlling US policy) career-ish women would have made it an issue.
No one (not even hard-liners) have ever gone near this, nor is any state plausibly doing anything to restrict IVF.
“We decided not to have kids because maybe IVF laws” is not a substantial restriction just rationalization—
Some stories of people impacted by the potential, uncertain restrictions. So far, I haven't seen enough of these to count as YES, but we'll watch and see.
"IVF patients started moving their embryos out of states with abortion bans when Roe fell" https://19thnews.org/2022/07/ivf-patients-moving-embryos-abortion-bans/
"I want to expand my family. But Texas’ abortion trigger ban stopped me in my tracks." https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/was-using-ivf-get-pregnant-texas-abortion-law-made-stop-trying-rcna44416