Will IVF be substantially restricted in any US state in 2022?
16
16
102
resolved Jan 7
Resolved
NO
If Roe v Wade is overturned, some states have laws that will take effect that prohibit the destruction of fertilized embryos, which may affect IVF. (The language varies and the exact meaning is unclear.) Here's one article on the topic: https://www.wired.com/story/ramifications-of-post-roe-world/ Resolves YES if IVF is substantially restricted in any US state in 2022. Because the law and interpretation of the law is unclear, this will resolve based on any relevant court decisions, reliable reporting on the legislative interpretation and intent, and the de facto impacts. If the situation is ambiguous I will resolve N/A. Related: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-iuds-be-substantially-restrict
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It took a while but this just happened:

https://apnews.com/article/alabama-frozen-embryos-pause-4cf5d3139e1a6cbc62bc5ad9946cc1b8

"Alabama hospital puts pause on IVF in wake of ruling saying frozen embryos are children"

This could potentially still end up getting resolved in such a way that IVF is allowed. The ruling wasn't about IVF specifically, but even if it doesn't disallow IVF completely it appears to at least create significant legal risks for IVF providers. https://apnews.com/article/ivf-frozen-embryo-alabama-court-7c968cc00201731d7baba5a284655b0d

predicted NO

Based on the previous discussion and another literature search, I think this is a NO. If there are any counterarguments, comment with them, otherwise I will resolve soon.

I examined this legal analysis of "State Abortion Laws Potential Implications for Reproductive Medicine" https://www.asrm.org/news-and-publications/asrms-response-to-the-dobbs-v-jackson-ruling/dobbs/state-law-summaries/

For each state, under "Does this law have a potential impact on IVF/Reproductive medicine?" the answers are something like "Seemingly no impact on IVF or other ART procedures." or "It does not appear that current abortion restrictions in Kansas will apply to IVF or other reproductive medicine services outside the context of a pregnancy."

There is one state that are more unclear, Utah, where their analysis is that the statute is ambiguous and could potentially be interpreted to have an impact on assisted reproductive technology, but I didn't find any reporting of a substantial actual impact.

bought Ṁ65 of NO

This (the articles and worry, not the market) is just fear porn.

IVF clinics would speak up if demand had collapsed, or (basically the group controlling US policy) career-ish women would have made it an issue.

No one (not even hard-liners) have ever gone near this, nor is any state plausibly doing anything to restrict IVF.

“We decided not to have kids because maybe IVF laws” is not a substantial restriction just rationalization—

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sP2tUW0HDHA

Some stories of people impacted by the potential, uncertain restrictions. So far, I haven't seen enough of these to count as YES, but we'll watch and see.

"IVF patients started moving their embryos out of states with abortion bans when Roe fell" https://19thnews.org/2022/07/ivf-patients-moving-embryos-abortion-bans/

"I want to expand my family. But Texas’ abortion trigger ban stopped me in my tracks." https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/was-using-ivf-get-pregnant-texas-abortion-law-made-stop-trying-rcna44416

Some reporting on concerns about IVF now. So far, it sound like people are mostly asking a lot of questions and there aren't clear answers. https://www.wsj.com/articles/fertility-doctors-move-embryos-to-other-states-in-case-of-roe-v-wade-impact-11656063000 https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2022/06/24/overturning-roe-v-wade-heres-how-it-could-impact-fertility-treatments-and-ivf/?sh=6cc050d44be9 The potential impacts vary by state depending on the precise language used in the laws. I am not a lawyer, but here are some examples: E.g. the author of Oklahoma's abortion law says "The bill clearly defines abortion as terminating the pregnancy of a woman" and would not affect IVF. The definition can be viewed here: https://www.oscn.net/applications/oscn/DeliverDocument.asp?CiteID=98157 On the other hand, Texas defines it as "death of an unborn child", and the Forbes article says about selective reduction (a procedure often used in IVF): "While many professionals don’t consider these procedures to be abortion—the pregnancy and a live fetus remains—Mohapatra said selective reduction would definitely count as abortion in some states like Texas, adding that there is an “immediate risk” of losing access to it." https://statutes.capitol.texas.gov/Docs/HS/htm/HS.245.htm#245.002 > "Abortion" means the act of using or prescribing an instrument, a drug, a medicine, or any other substance, device, or means with the intent to cause the death of an unborn child of a woman known to be pregnant. The term does not include birth control devices or oral contraceptives.