Will Iran or Iran-backed forces attack US forces in Iraq and cause at least one casualty in 2023?
13
230Ṁ4104
resolved Dec 26
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if reliable media publications report that Iranian or Iranian-backed forces exchanged fire or any other "kinetic conflict" (e.g. gunfire, explosives) with US forces in Iraq and caused at least one casualty to the US forces (defined as becoming unavailable for duty due to death, injury, etc, as per the military definition of the word casualty), between March 24 and December 31 (inclusive), local time. Otherwise NO.

Background

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3339691/us-conducts-airstrikes-in-syria-in-response-to-deadly-uav-attack/ - Suspected Iranian UAV attack kills and wounds US personnel in Syria.

From last year:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-attacks-northern-iraq-with-missiles-and-drones-killing-at-least-13-11664402169

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says it targeted what it called terrorist groups in Iraqi Kurdistan; a U.S. warplane shot down one drone as it headed toward a city where American troops are based

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-september-30

A senior Iranian military official, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, threatened to attack US forces in Iraq in retaliation for the US shootdown of an Iranian drone illegally operating in Iraqi airspace near an American military base.[4] Bagheri also suggested that Iran would attack US bases in Iraq for supporting anti-regime Kurdish groups.

Resolution details

  • The identity of the attackers must be described as Iranian or Iranian-backed forces, or described as asssessed or suspected as such in official US announcements.

  • If US forces are injured as a result of a cyberattack or other non-kinetic conflict, that would not resolve YES.

  • As an example, the drone attacks mentioned in the articles above clearly would count if they took place again in the relevant time period in Iraq and caused US causaulties.

  • US forces will be defined to include US military and US military contractors.

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