Resolves based on the winner of the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president.
Details:
The resolution is to the first nominee formally selected by the Republican Party. If the nominee is later replaced (for example, due to dropping out of the election, death, etc) that does not change the resolution.
If a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after securing a majority of pledged delegates, this market will resolve on a preliminary basis. However, if the actual nominee ends up being a different candidate than the presumptive nominee, then the resolution of the market will be changed to reflect the final nominee.
1,000
3.00@Joshua I think it doesn't resolve until the convention when he's formally selected. It's technically still possible that he could die and never be formally selected as the nominee.
@Joshua Resolving provisionally as per the rules, and will reopen if for whatever reason he drops out or is not the nominee. Bet on that here:
I made a derivative market of this market https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/trump-is-republican-nominee-x-repub there should be some arbitrage opportunities
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This phrasing is confusing to me. I guess you're saying if Donald is nominated but then he dies or whatever and they pick a replacement, this resolves YES? But then "before election day" suggests that if it happens after the election, it would resolve NO, which doesn't make any sense to me.
I guess you're saying if Donald is nominated but then he dies or whatever and they pick a replacement, this resolves YES?
Correct
But then "before election day" suggests that if it happens after the election, it would resolve NO, which doesn't make any sense to me.
No such implication is intended. It's just that the pre-election scenario is the one that could be ambiguous, because then they could replace the nominee, so it is specifically calling out that scenario. After election day, there can't be any new nominee, so there's no ambiguity. I will edit to remove any such implication.
Before the indictments, Trump was polling in the 40s - he's now in the low 50s. DeSantis was polling in the 30s - he's now in the low 20s. These rally-around-Trump effects have persisted for two and a half months and counting.
A poll in late March (when everyone knew the indictments were coming) showed that 80% of Republicans think the indictments are a "witch hunt," and 80% have a favorable opinion of Trump (after, you know, a million scandals and a coup attempt) - further indictments/worse indictments will not convince that 80% that Trump should not be elected. Only 10% of Republicans say he's done something illegal (?!) and 45% say he's done "nothing wrong" (?!?!?!) - 75% of Republicans want him to be president again. Republican primary voters, by and large, will not be deterred by any amount of indictments or evidence. The misinformation bubble is too strong.
Speculation/opinion, but anyone who still supports Trump after January 6, 2021 has lost touch with reality and cannot be reached with logical or rational arguments. There was a coup attempt in broad daylight. It does not get much worse or much more blatant than that. What on earth could get his core supporters to drop him? He could kick puppies on live TV for an hour and 40-50% of Republicans would still vote for him.
DeSantis has the charisma of a cardboard cutout, is so blatantly transphobic that even Republican donors are bailing on him, and is getting sued by Disney (awful PR.)
Meanwhile, Trump's numbers with independents are tanking so hard that he would probably lose an election against almost any Democrat.
Am I missing something? Why have "Trump nominated" markets been getting lower while "Trump wins the general" markets have been getting higher? It should be the other way around.
70% chance Trump is nominated, 70% chance he loses the general election. Source: polls and a B.A. in political science. Don't have enough mana to put it where my mouth is, but I'm also not selling any of my YES shares.
@evergreenemily Great comment!! This is going to be a crazy primary season because record numbers of Democrats and Independents are going to register as Republicans in next year's primaries and really screw with the numbers. Trump's die hard supporters only make up 35 percent of the party, which is simply not enough to guarantee him anything other than a seat at the table. Best case scenario nobody has enough delegates going into the GOP convention for it to be conceded thus setting up Mitch McConnell, Mitt Romney and Ted Cruz (yes I said Ted Cruz) to step in and unilaterally end the crazy behind closed doors where these things used to be decided. Mitch McConnell could tell Trump that if he is elected he will support impeaching him before he is inaugurated because he can back that threat up. Trump will probably be able to trade his delegates to someone of his choice in exchange for being #2 on the ticket. I have been saying for awhile Trump would be MUCH better off if he made this deal now with someone not already in the race. Not only might he then have a chance of winning and gaining temporary immunity and potentially a guaranteed pardon on federal charges. Ted Cruz really should be the GOP nominee and the only reason he isn't running this round yet is because I think he can clearly see he is primed to be the party savior when Trump goes to prison or is forced to make the deal I just mentioned because Lyin Ted is the only nationally tested and proven GOP option.
I appreciate a fellow BA in Political Science, though my take on his odds is very different than yours. I think he has 95 percent chance of not being the nominee for many reasons. To start, there is no possible way for him to generate any good news about himself or his campaign between now and the election. Trump is literally going to be going from one courtroom to another for 6-12 months starting in August with no option to have his attorneys represent him while he campaigns and no delays so he can participate in Town Halls or debates. Judges are serious people and since they will now need to coordinate with each other just to fit him into their dockets he has almost no chance of delay. Then on top of his legal and ethical problems, there is the issue of Trump only being able to serve one more term anyway, and once that sinks in with GOP primary voters they will bail on him because WTF would they nominate someone incapable of elevating those around him because he wants to dominate the limelight.
I could go on and on but I am going to bet ever single mana I can get my hands on that Trump is going to be convicted, never win another election and likely lose EVERYTHING from Mar-a-Lago to Trump Tower under the crushing weight of DoJ asset seizure as soon as he is convicted of even a single count. Everything he is charged with has a non-specific fine included in the sentencing guidelines.
I think people just want to see the spectacle because it has been a wild and crazy show up to this point, but they don't realize how incredibly lucky we are his autogolpe failed. In fact, I don't think even Trump realizes how lucky HE is that he failed because had he succeeded in delaying certification and didn't leave office I think best case he would have been thrown in jail and never let out, worst case he would be on death row or have received a suspended death sentence.
I mean, what if they get evidence that he showed the nuclear weapon documents to someone from Saudi Arabia for instance. Would that not rise to the level of what the Rosenberg's did??? I think there is a strong argument that Trump's actions are far more damaging than the Rosenberg's were.
@NicoDelon The only thing Trump had to hold onto was โwhat about Hunter??โ Now there is no bias or politics that can be claimed. This is much worse news for Trump, for sure.
@BTE I'm not sure I'm following the reasoning. Why is Hunter Biden's guilty plea bad for Trump?
@NicoDelon Oh I see. Sure, it undermines charges of bias but it's still good for Trump!
@NicoDelon Biden is going to be seen as having indicted his own son whether that is what happened or not. How is that not the ethical ideal for a political figure? How does it reflect even remotely bad on Biden? Trump's kids literally took hundreds of millions of dollars from sovereign wealth funds after leaving their high profile jobs in the West Wing. Hunter Biden sold some paintings he made while in rehab recovering from a life of pain and loss that is as tragic as they get.
Why you think this hurts Biden? According to Trump it is Biden's DoJ. Maybe people will think he is a cold-hearted asshole for throwing his crack addict son in prison, but other than that he looks more presidential at this moment that any president has since idk Obama killed bin Laden???
@BTE It seems like they reached a guilty plea with prosecutors before an indictment, no?
The fact that his son pled guilty to federal charges doesn't reflect badly on Biden?
@NicoDelon I should probably ask this in a DM, but are you are Trump voter? I spend a lot of time with philosophers being married to one so I would be more than a little bit surprised to hear that you are but also very curious to know more....
@BTE We'll see how much the primaries get messed with - it could certainly be a good opportunity for some Dems to vote in the Republican primary, since there's like a 90% chance that Biden's gonna be the nominee. Given that 45% of Republicans say he did "nothing wrong," I think it's safe to say ~40-45% are die-hard Trump supporters, and the 75% of Republicans who want to see him run again represent a ceiling of his vote share that's well over 50.01%. Since a lot of Republican primaries use a winner-take-all system, he could probably coast to victory with ~45% of the vote with a split field. If the primaries were today with these polling numbers, Trump would probably win like 80% of delegates with ~52% of the vote.
A closed-door resolution like that is probably the worst-case scenario for Republicans. The base would revolt, Trump might run third-party, and Cruz, McConnell, and Romney would all get primaried in their next elections (I'm pretty sure almost every Republican House member who voted to impeach him either resigned or got primaried in 2022.) I'd love to see that happen, as a progressive Democrat, but I think those three know it would be political suicide. Also, FWIW I think Ted Cruz would lose hilariously in a general election; he's too extreme on social issues and by all accounts (co-workers, Senators, etc.) he is an absolutely awful person to work with, with basically zero charisma. "If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was in the Senate, nobody could convict you."
I think that everything you're mentioning in re: the judicial system will hurt him in the general, but not the primary. It definitely hurts him to be unable to hold rallies, but he can dominate the media landscape with calls to FOX and social media posts, especially if he starts Tweeting again. All his base hears is "THE BIDEN DEEP STATE IS TRYING TO IMPRISON ME. SAD!" The country as a whole is sick of him, but his base isn't.
I would love it if he got convicted, and I think it would torpedo his chances of winning a general election - but I also think he could win a Republican primary from a jail cell. My fundamental thesis is that Republican primary voters exist in an entirely different world where everything is a deep state plot being exposed by Q or whatever; they are the most extreme and most propagandized members of a party that is already very far-right.
Sentencing Trump to death would probably start a civil war, but I think you're right that if he really dug his heels in, he would have been arrested immediately and probably sentenced to at least a few decades in prison (which he would not survive.)
Trump's actions were abhorrent, and I think he's fighting James Buchanan and Andrew Johnson for the title of "Worst President Ever." I think if proof of something like that came out, it could potentially topple his candidacy...but he might still win a primary because he can just go "DON'T BELIEVE THE DEEP STATE LIES ABOUT THE NUCLEAR DOCUMENTS! IT'S ALL DEEP STATE DEEP FAKES. MANY PEOPLE ARE SAYING THIS!"
@BTE I'm going to bet that in the next 2 weeks we see polls come out which show >70% of republicans believing that hunter Biden got off too easily because of his dad
@NicoDelon @SemioticRivalry Does it not matter at all that those people are absolute morons who are defending Trumpโs right to do whatever the fuck he wants with impunity??? Like what is your point?? Hunter wonโt get the approval of the people who have been trying to push him into relapsing his entire adult life?? As far as I am concerned 70 percent of Republicans are sad and petty and deserve every bit of disappointment headed their way.
@BTE That has nothing to do with predicting the outcome. You're confusing our predictions for our value judgments.
@NicoDelon I am not disputing your prediction by the way. I think you are probably right.
@BTE I think the point is that those 70% of Republicans are the ones who will vote for Trump.
@BTE My value judgments and moral beliefs play no absolutely no role on Manifold. Maybe that's why I have an A+ calibration score.
@NicoDelon Maybe, I only have an A myself. I make value judgements on all sides. I am personally really into politics, always have been. I worked for a Republican Speaker of the House but I have no partisan bias. My bias is aligned with Publius and therefore I very confident the system will hold up to Trump and his utterly abhorrent approach to politics.
Also I should say I am by far the best predictor about the fate of Donald Trump on this or any other prediction market. I got the mana and Brier Score to back that up. Remember when you laughed at me a couple weeks ago for basically betting against 200 people by myself that he would be charged with the Espionage Act? I think you will be persuaded sooner than later than Trump is toast but in the meantime wanna bet some more???
@BTE I was wrong about the Espionage charges, I admitted it. And FWIW I'm leaning NO on his nomination.
@evergreenemily I completely disagree about the base revolting. MAGA might revolt, but they were never Republicans in the first place and should have always been assumed to be transient phenomenon. The GOP future base looks much more like its past, just with "owning the libs" more front and center of the platform. Trump's only real impact on Republican politics other than undermining everyone other than himself and making the party look weak and pathetic is his ability to entertain the toxically masculine and their trad wives with his shallow and cliched own the lib tactics.
There is no situation that anything done to Trump starts a civil war. I think that is beyond hyperbolic, if for no other reason because it essentially raises the suffering of a single white male billionaire to that of the institutionalized black slavery. There was an opportunity for a civil war when Trump was actually the president and the insurrection was the best he could do. If the next civil war consists of tens of millions of racist douchebags get drunk and violent and it results in them losing dozens of months of freedom followed by a lifetime of unemployment and ridicule then lets get it over with already. Like if the random draft of 17 year old men into the jungles of Vietnam for randomized death games followed by PTSD and the highest rates of suicide of any generational cohort in the history of western civilization didn't result in a civil war, Donald Trump facing the consequences of his actions ain't gonna put us over some imaginary bar where all of a sudden we civil war. By that logic maybe you think America has been at civil war with the black community since the assassination of MLK and Malcolm X among others?
Additionally, Trump's base consists of the operational equivalent of Little Leaguers. Like we saw how pathetically bad they were at running the country when we handed them the keys, how in the fuck are they going to organize their dumbasses to do anything that doesn't get snuffed out in utero?
Anyway, Trump must face severe consequences so the other second and third rate celebrities with 90 million Twitter or Instagram followers think better of thinking they are up to the job. We need to bring properly talented and non-ideological thinkers back into government if we are going to win the next real struggle against China who is coming to eat our our lunch and steal our technology so we better be more than ready.
This is fun!!! I appreciate you sharing your thoughts in depth and if I offend you with my flippantness at any point I apologize in advance and encourage you to dish it right back at me!! ๐
MAGA...were never Republicans in the first place
I'm trying to make sense of this and failing. Most Trump supporters are very conservative and have been voting for Republicans for a lot longer than seven years. The MAGA people have been part of the Republican Party for a long time - since at least the Tea Party movement - and Trump just gave them an excuse to say what they were already thinking.
The Democratic and Republican parties have fundamentally changed since 2016. Both parties are slightly more populist, Democrats have moved a bit to the left, and Republicans have moved far to the right. The suburbs that flipped blue in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 are staying blue; the rural white areas that flipped red in those same years are staying red. There is no going back to the pre-Trump (or pre-Boebert, or pre-DeSantis, etc.) Republican Party. The populism, authoritarian tactics, and increasingly vile rhetoric are here to stay, at least until the end of this decade.
I never said it would be a justified civil war. But I can see the right-wing media headlines now - "Biden Murders Trump" etc. - and the fact that far-right conspiracy theorists are disproportionately likely to be well-armed and part of a militia means political violence of some degree would be inevitable. You're right that they're not particularly well-organized or able to govern, but that doesn't mean they can't do a lot of harm before they're stopped. As to your last point; the American police state in particular is carrying out horrifying amounts of organized violence against Black people (as it always has) but I wouldn't call it a civil war, because the violence is extremely one-sided. It's more of a racist intimidation campaign carried out via police brutality.
I absolutely agree there, yeah. I'm a bit too far left for American politics, but I'm also pragmatic. Celebrities getting involved in politics without prior experience usually turns out really, really badly. For a government to work, the people in charge need to be competent and experienced - not demagogues who are just good at playing a crowd.
No worries! I'm having fun too. I think my tone comes across as a bit flat over text - it's probably a mixture of my autism and my frequently formal/academic writing style.
@BTE 82% of Republicans have a favorable view of trump, 10% somewhat unfavorable, 6% very unfavorable. From the latest YouGov poll
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/rj3bg6ve06/econTabReport.pdf
@SemioticRivalry Dude, you gotta stop with the polls and other peopleโs opinions. What do you think??
@BTE Well, I am not ~30 million Republican Primary voters, and I think their opinions are more relevant than mine for this market.
@MP many states donโt even require you to register with a party, you just declare which ballot you want when you show up at the primary polling place. And how do you think Trumpโs MAGA candidates actually get the nomination when they are 3rd rate dipshits? The democrats have been donating tens of millions to support them in the primary and when there is no democratic primary, like in 2022, they vote in GOP primaries. This is how David McCormick lost to Dr Oz in Pennsylvania Senate primary. And also how that qanon crazy Republican whose name is escaping me was the Pennsylvania GOP nominee for governor. Check it out.
@MP I am willing to bet that democrats won't show up to vote for Mike Pence or whatever in the Iowa causus. And that the mainstream press won't report this happening
@MP the Democratic Party brags about it on Meet the Press. And you are absolutely wrong, millions of democrats would turn out to vote for Liz Cheney despite her being Darth Vaders child.
@BTE Why would democrats willing to vote for the moderate Republicans? One would imagine they have better odds the crazier the opponent is
@MP Liz Cheney is far from a moderate, she just isnโt in thrall to Master Chump. When Chump is involved itโs a bit different calculation. But in all other races yes, the dems would and will do this. I can tell you I did it as a young republican living in Chicago and so did all the other republicans in Chicago. If you donโt participate in democratic primaries you basically have no political life or community LOL. There literally arenโt any GOP candidates for anything.
@BTE I ain't understanding. You think democrats will show up and vote against Trump? Why? I can't see this as a path to winning this market, for example
@MP I think there are a lot of Dems terrified about Bidenโs age and they are more likely to choose a moderate Republican who believes in science than RFK Jr. this is too complicated for this high latency thread. Letโs continue on Discord.
@evergreenemily Saying there is no going back to the pre-Trump Republican Party is wrong because there is no youth movement in the GOP. What we are witnessing is the last gasp of a dying cohort that gives increasingly fewer fucks as they get older. I see MAGA as distinct from the GOP because they clearly have no loyalty to the party, nor to the country as far as I am concerned.
I think there should be coordinated boycotts of any business that is run by a self-identified MAGAt. I think there should be a coordinated migration effort that strategically moves liberal voters into conservative counties where it would only take a few thousand votes to flip local and state offices. These people are so stupid they can be beaten without a civil war. We beat them by flooding the zone with free speech that pisses them off. We should be trying to force them to arrest us for performing in drag shows or whatever it takes to trigger them.
I will say that I donโt think the most powerful conservatives are MAGA at all, specifically Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney-Barrett, Neil Gorsuch and Samual Alito. Thomas is definitely MAGA but he was always a hack. Just look at how little the court has done to help Trump.
You have inspired many ideas this morning! I will have more to say later but now I must do work!! Manifold MUTE!!