Needs a resolve mechanism for Other. Or really you should have started off listing Other as option.
@AaronKreider Probably if an 'other' looks likely to win, someone will add that 'other' as a proper answer. However, you can add 'other' if you think it should be there.
@Duncan Nice. I didn't know you could do that. Adding it now.
@Duncan Hmm, the problem is that if other people can add options - then Other will always lose. Other needs to split into the new options and other. Or you need to stop accepting new options.
@AaronKreider New options will cease to be accepted at close. Agree that it’s unlikely Other would win in that scenario.
Perimutuel is a terrible format for prediction markets because there's little incentive to arb incorrect probabilities early. If I bet on youngkin 0.5% now I have no idea what my actual payout will be. Could be anywhere between 200-1 and 10-1.
@JonathanRay There's a fixed payout version of the market here: https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-republican-no
@Austin If the US did somehow acquire South Africa as a new state, then anyone born there would actually become automatically eligible. I think there's a SCOTUS case from like way back in the 1830s or something where a VP candidate (back before single-ticket) was born outside the US in a territory that later became a state, but can't seem to find the reference off hand.