Who will be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee?

closes Sep 1, 2024

146

Feb 17, 9:56pm: In the event of more than one answer being correct, this market will resolve to the earliest answer created.

US Politics

2024 US Presidential Election

Politics

Ron DeSantis

48%

Donald Trump

41%

Other

Nikki Haley

1.7%

Mike Pence

1.5%

Donald Trump

1.4%

Tim Scott

1.0%

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Aaron Kreider

Needs a resolve mechanism for Other. Or really you should have started off listing Other as option.

Duncn

@AaronKreider Probably if an 'other' looks likely to win, someone will add that 'other' as a proper answer. However, you can add 'other' if you think it should be there.

Aaron Kreiderbought Ṁ100 of Other

@Duncan Nice. I didn't know you could do that. Adding it now.

Aaron Kreider

@Duncan Hmm, the problem is that if other people can add options - then Other will always lose. Other needs to split into the new options and other. Or you need to stop accepting new options.

David Glidden

@AaronKreider New options will cease to be accepted at close. Agree that it’s unlikely Other would win in that scenario.

Jonathan Ray

Perimutuel is a terrible format for prediction markets because there's little incentive to arb incorrect probabilities early. If I bet on youngkin 0.5% now I have no idea what my actual payout will be. Could be anywhere between 200-1 and 10-1.

agabara

@JonathanRay There's a fixed payout version of the market here: https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-republican-no

JAAM

Same here for arbitrage:

Gabrielle answered

Elon Musk

Andrew Hartman

@Austin If the US did somehow acquire South Africa as a new state, then anyone born there would actually become automatically eligible. I think there's a SCOTUS case from like way back in the 1830s or something where a VP candidate (back before single-ticket) was born outside the US in a territory that later became a state, but can't seem to find the reference off hand.

Gabrielle answered

Elon Musk

Austin @MattP You don't think there's like a 5% chance we change the Constitution, and/or Musk turns out to have been natural born all along, and/or the US annexes South Africa and retroactively allows people born their to be prez? (neither do I)

Gabrielle answered

Elon Musk

Matt P @Gabrielle funny, but he's not eligible. Free money if we were able to short options. xD

Bolton Baileybought Ṁ3 of Donald TrumpYou can apparently make an option that's the exact same as one that already exists, seems like this should be fixed.

David Glidden @Gabrielle fair point about being the nominee! Would seem like a critical error, but crazy things have happened... ha @BoltonBailey I was specifically thinking of this market while listening to last night's episode too

Bolton Baileybought Ṁ1 of Nikki HaleyNate Silver don't steer me wrong

Gabriellebought Ṁ1 of Elon MuskOn the one hand, that’s a good point. On the other hand, it’s Elon Musk, so I wouldn’t be surprised about anything nowadays. I suppose technically there’s nothing stopping a *nominee* from being foreign born. :)

David Gliddenbought Ṁ1 of Elon MuskFun fact I just learned today: Elon Musk was not born in the US so would not be eligible to run for President unless there was a change to the Constitution.

Gabriellebought Ṁ10 of Elon MuskI hope not, but it seems somewhat plausible. He probably won’t, but he’s been getting more concerned about politics recently. If he ran I think there’s a good chance he could get the nomination, especially if Trump doesn’t run.