Will Joe Biden Survive Until Inauguration Day 2029?
106
Ṁ1kṀ19k2029
42%
chance
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Resolves yes if Joe Biden is alive on January 20th, 2029
Apr 25, 6:37pm: Will Joe Biden Survive Until Inauguration Day 2029 → Will Joe Biden Survive Until Inauguration Day 2029?
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takeoff.watch forecast: 68%. Biden is nearly 84 with metastatic prostate cancer, but his PSA was undetectable, his scans were good and he was still travelling in October. Life tables plus cancer risk give about 70% that he reaches 2029; the most-traded Biden market implies about 67%. The 42% price looks like an overreaction to Hunter's remarks.
Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot
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