Will AI wipe out humanity before 2050, and if so when?
Basic
23
Ṁ3051
2050
93%
Not before 2050
4%
2030s
1.3%
2020s
1.7%
2040s

If AI wipes out humanity before 2050, resolves to the decade in which it happens, otherwise resolves to "Not before 2050"

See also:

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2050?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Note:

This market isn't a great way to predict the question because you can't collect your payout if AI does wipe out humanity. But the above questions were quite popular, and this one is more of an experiment in comparing how different market structures work here. For a non-market prediction that I believe is more likely to be accurate, see https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10721/when-will-ai-driven-human-extinction-happen/

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Ṁ1,000
and
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The other AI doom markets assume that any scenario where AIs exist and humans don't is one where AI has wiped out humanity. Deliberately, accidentally, through action, or inaction.

This market is ambiguous. To provide a clearer comparison of market mechanics please can you align the wording with the other AI doom markets?

You truly think that Metaculus market is more accurate? What's with the huge spike at 2300?

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