In September, what will be the community prediction for "Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040"
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Ṁ100Ṁ28resolved Sep 1
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Resolves to the community prediction on https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/humanmachine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/ on 9/1/2022.
This question asks about whether an AI will be able to outscore humans on a generalized intelligence test whose questions are designed to advantage the humans (see the link for more details). As of today, the community prediction is 60%. The prediction has gone up substantially recently, due to the large number of impressive new results (e.g. dall-e-2, imagen, OPT-175B, etc)
One question we can ask is: is the community updating their predictions quickly and accurately enough to reflect new information? If a prediction is accurate, we should roughly expect to be surprised equally often by faster than expected AI progress as by slower than expected AI progress.
Meta comment: this is one of a series of markets to try out different suggestions discussed in https://manifold.markets/jack/how-should-manifold-encourage-tradi.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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