How should Manifold encourage trading on long-term markets?

1kṀ1085

resolved Jun 5

49%48%

Loans of a fixed size per market (like before)

26%26%

Leverage: E.g. say when you bet $5, you pay $1 up front and $4 later (the $4 is loaned to you)

19%19%

Funds in long term markets grow (pay interest)

3%3%

Futures: derivative market Y on the probability of market X at time T

2%2%

Continuous partial resolution of "how many days until X" markets

1.7%Other

0.2%

Leaderboards for long-term markets

0.2%

Dedicated pool of money for long term markets

0.1%

Small bets have high margin: 100% of your capital, no leverage 25% of your capital, 2x leverage 5% of your capital, 4x leverage 1%, 8x leverage

0.0%

Pay interest on invested mana

0.0%

Insurance markets - "will X happen today?"

0.0%

Discourage them instead

0.1%

Demurrage (charge interest on uninvested cash)

0.3%

Market creators can offer dividends/bounties to draw in bettors

0.3%

Curated Long Term Tournaments with their own mana pool

Currently, trading on markets that resolve in a few days is far more incentivized compared to trading on markets that resolve in months or years, because you can earn similar amounts of profits much sooner. The M$ you put into a 1-year market could be traded hundreds of times on shorter-term markets for much more profits. This is reflected in the fact that we generally see more trading on short-term markets than long-term ones - although there are certainly exceptions to the general rule. Making predictions on long-term questions is very useful though! How can Manifold mitigate the disparity in incentives and help encourage more trading on long-term markets? This market resolves the market consensus (but I will adjust the probabilities according to my judgement if it seems to become too much of a Keynesian beauty contest). See related discussion on: https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/how-will-loans-be-implemented-on-ju Please do add more suggestions! May 31, 7:31am: "but I will adjust the probabilities according to my judgement if it seems to become too much of a Keynesian beauty contest" -> as pointed out by Matt, "Keynesian beauty contest" carries different meanings/connotations. So please instead read this as: if the trading on the market looks too much like pure price manipulation instead of actually trying to predict the question I asked, then I will adjust the resolution to ignore the seemingly-manipulated prices, according to my judgement.

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